Kombitrafikens utveckling -Dåtid, Nutid, Framtid Rickard Bergqvist, Ph.D. Assistant Professor Logistics and Transport Research Group, Department of Business Administration School of Business, Economics and Law, Gothenburg University P.O. Box 610, SE 405 30 Göteborg, Sweden Phone +46 31 786 5241 (+46 730 290087) E-mail: rickard.bergqvist@handels.gu.se http://www.handels.gu.se/fek/logistikgruppen/

Marknadsförutsättningar 1(3) - Järnvägstransporter i Europa Blygsam utveckling Ungefär 15% av all godstrafik i inlandet Utsläpp Trängsel Olyckor Bättre nyttjande av infrastruktur Det har varit ett politiskt mål i decennium att öka denna andel! Short Description: This indicator is defined as the percentage share of each mode of transport in total inland transport expressed in tonne-kilometres (tkm). It includes transport by road, rail and inland waterways. Road transport is based on all movements of vehicles registered in the reporting country. Rail and Inland waterways transport is generally based on movements on national territory, regardless of the nationality of the vehicle or vessel, but there are some variations in definitions from country to country. Lets take a look at combined transports (next slide) Percentage share of each mode of transport in total inland transport expressed in tonne-kilometres (tkm). Source: EUROSTAT 2006

Marknadsförutsättningar 2(3) - Kombitransporter i EU Ungefär 5% av alla godstransporter Svag tillväxt Europe has a relatively poor growth in intermodal transport although it differs greatly between countries. Italy has substantial growth while Germany has a weak growth The growth is not sufficient in order for intermodal transports to gain shares of the freight market Today European intermodal transport only accounts for about 5% of total freight traffic It is important to notice that many of the national rail industry opened up for competition during the 1990th with start in 1991 by the EU directive 91/440. Maybe one of the reasons that the demand curve dips between 1990-1994. This means in most cases a separation of rail track, traction and freight services. This poor development is especially severe since much effort on promoting intermodal transport is done by both EU and at the national level. However, it might be due to a lag since much support has not yet gain full effect (e.g. TEN) However, currently we can see a stronger growth rate and changes in the structure of intermodal transport systems due to a number of trends INTERMODAL TRAFFIC OF THE RAILWAYS OF THE EU (15 + NORWAY AND SWITZERLAND) (IN MILLIONS OF TONNES). SOURCE: Debrie & Gouvernal 2006

Marknadsförutsättningar 3(3) – Kombitransporter med järnväg 1997-2009 (Sverige) Most of these trends are general for the EU so what has happened in Sweden that has not yet been as obvious in the EU! The answer is regional logisitics centers and rail shuttle services connected to ports and shipping Lets us take a closer look at these shuttles and the regional logistics centers Källa: Trafikanalys (2010), Bantrafik 2009

Globala och generella trender Ökad internationell handel Outsourcing Trängsel Miljöpåverkan (internalisering av externa kostnader: vägtullar, vägavgifter, skatter, uttsläppsrätter, etc.)

Tekniska trender Större och effektiva fartyg Hanteringsteknik 20 % less CO2 per container moved than Emma Mærsk (www.maersk.com) 50 % less CO2 per container moved than the industry average on the Asia–Europe trade lane. (www.maersk.com) Hanteringsteknik Informationssystem RFID Geofencing Harmonisering av järnvägsinfrastruktur Maersk Triple E: 18.000 TEU Fehmarn Belt

Marknadstrender 1(3) Ökad containerisering Avreglering av järnvägsmarknader Internationellt samarbete mellan tågoperatörer (t.ex. Xrail, dock vagnslast) M&A: Warren Buffett köpte upp Burlington North Santa Fe (BNSF) 2010 för $44 billion Deutsche Bahn’s köpte upp Arriva (UK) 2010 för £1.59bn Enligt statistik från Dealogic, steg antalet affärer inom den globala transport- och logistiksektorn med 13% till 892 st under 2010, jämfört med bara 3% för marknaden som helhet. Värdet av affärerna steg 224 % från året innan och uppgick till $892bn (£553bn, föregående år) . We already see demand for more sophisticated services related to the origin of rail shuttles such as toll documentation, storage and inspection. Based on the challenges of freight in Europe my research has investigated the potential of establishing rail shuttles over distance no more than 140km. Results indicate profitability. This has great affect on the perspective of intermodal transport markets since traditionally the “mental” limit of profitable combined transport is set to 300km in Europe. The development of rail shuttles has greatly facilitated the transport of goods to and from ports which has supported a growth in goods volumes and as a result traffic concentrates to those hubs Another effect is that the traditional catchment areas of ports expands and so those the logistics region. Today Port of Göteborg is associated with the whole region of Scandinavia The high number of operators on these shuttle services is a good platform for competition, innovation and maybe a start of a number of new actors that has the courage to later compete on the more traditional rail freight market Probably the market for rail services will see a further entrance of new actors that come from market with other modes of transport, e.g. shipping lines, ports, hauliers and terminal operators) The Port sector will probably also undergo an increasing element of competition with other ports as they compete over catchments areas that are larger than traditionally Altogether the establishment of rail shuttles will have a great impact on logistics systems with better service quality, environmental friendliness and cost efficiency as a results. From a regional perspective it will becomce much more cost efficient to compete on international markets and the cheap access is no longer an exclusive advantage of firms in direct closeness to major hubs.

Marknadstrender 2(3) Etableringar av torrhamnar Nya funktioner och tjänster Trailertrafik och hamnskyttlar Upphandlingar av hamnar och terminaler Nya operatörer, ökad konkurrens Marknadskonsolidering Intelligenta systemupplägg och lösningar Koordinering och konsolidering av skyttlar Balansering av volymer Interregionala skyttlar Icke-tidskänsligt gods Terminalutveckling (multipurpose): Trailers, containers, vagnslast, kylcontainers, “bio”, personbilar, bulk, 3pl, tull, torrhamn, etc. We already see demand for more sophisticated services related to the origin of rail shuttles such as toll documentation, storage and inspection. Based on the challenges of freight in Europe my research has investigated the potential of establishing rail shuttles over distance no more than 140km. Results indicate profitability. This has great affect on the perspective of intermodal transport markets since traditionally the “mental” limit of profitable combined transport is set to 300km in Europe. The development of rail shuttles has greatly facilitated the transport of goods to and from ports which has supported a growth in goods volumes and as a result traffic concentrates to those hubs Another effect is that the traditional catchment areas of ports expands and so those the logistics region. Today Port of Göteborg is associated with the whole region of Scandinavia The high number of operators on these shuttle services is a good platform for competition, innovation and maybe a start of a number of new actors that has the courage to later compete on the more traditional rail freight market Probably the market for rail services will see a further entrance of new actors that come from market with other modes of transport, e.g. shipping lines, ports, hauliers and terminal operators) The Port sector will probably also undergo an increasing element of competition with other ports as they compete over catchments areas that are larger than traditionally Altogether the establishment of rail shuttles will have a great impact on logistics systems with better service quality, environmental friendliness and cost efficiency as a results. From a regional perspective it will becomce much more cost efficient to compete on international markets and the cheap access is no longer an exclusive advantage of firms in direct closeness to major hubs.

Marknadstrender 3(3) Intelligenta systemupplägg och lösningar Koordinering och konsolidering av skyttlar Balansering av volymer Interregionala skyttlar Icke-tidskänsligt gods Fler järnvägsfärjor? (SeaRail) Kombitransporter– en viktig del av en hållbarhetsstrategi och ett verktyg för marknadsföring We already see demand for more sophisticated services related to the origin of rail shuttles such as toll documentation, storage and inspection. Based on the challenges of freight in Europe my research has investigated the potential of establishing rail shuttles over distance no more than 140km. Results indicate profitability. This has great affect on the perspective of intermodal transport markets since traditionally the “mental” limit of profitable combined transport is set to 300km in Europe. The development of rail shuttles has greatly facilitated the transport of goods to and from ports which has supported a growth in goods volumes and as a result traffic concentrates to those hubs Another effect is that the traditional catchment areas of ports expands and so those the logistics region. Today Port of Göteborg is associated with the whole region of Scandinavia The high number of operators on these shuttle services is a good platform for competition, innovation and maybe a start of a number of new actors that has the courage to later compete on the more traditional rail freight market Probably the market for rail services will see a further entrance of new actors that come from market with other modes of transport, e.g. shipping lines, ports, hauliers and terminal operators) The Port sector will probably also undergo an increasing element of competition with other ports as they compete over catchments areas that are larger than traditionally Altogether the establishment of rail shuttles will have a great impact on logistics systems with better service quality, environmental friendliness and cost efficiency as a results. From a regional perspective it will becomce much more cost efficient to compete on international markets and the cheap access is no longer an exclusive advantage of firms in direct closeness to major hubs.

Trender kring forskning och policy Torrhamnar – generation 2.0 Inlandstransporter och kopplingen med det globala transprotsystemet (rederier och hamnar allt mer medvetna om dess strategiska betydelse) Transportpolitik kring intermodala terminaler och torrhamnar och säkerställandet av öppenhet (third-party access) Marco Polo programmet behövs modifieras och utvecklas till att premiera innovativa koncept relaterat till terminalutveckling Short Sea Shipping är mer och mer ifrågasatt utifrån ett miljöperspektiv Diskussioner kring dubbelekipage We already see demand for more sophisticated services related to the origin of rail shuttles such as toll documentation, storage and inspection. Based on the challenges of freight in Europe my research has investigated the potential of establishing rail shuttles over distance no more than 140km. Results indicate profitability. This has great affect on the perspective of intermodal transport markets since traditionally the “mental” limit of profitable combined transport is set to 300km in Europe. The development of rail shuttles has greatly facilitated the transport of goods to and from ports which has supported a growth in goods volumes and as a result traffic concentrates to those hubs Another effect is that the traditional catchment areas of ports expands and so those the logistics region. Today Port of Göteborg is associated with the whole region of Scandinavia The high number of operators on these shuttle services is a good platform for competition, innovation and maybe a start of a number of new actors that has the courage to later compete on the more traditional rail freight market Probably the market for rail services will see a further entrance of new actors that come from market with other modes of transport, e.g. shipping lines, ports, hauliers and terminal operators) The Port sector will probably also undergo an increasing element of competition with other ports as they compete over catchments areas that are larger than traditionally Altogether the establishment of rail shuttles will have a great impact on logistics systems with better service quality, environmental friendliness and cost efficiency as a results. From a regional perspective it will becomce much more cost efficient to compete on international markets and the cheap access is no longer an exclusive advantage of firms in direct closeness to major hubs.

Avslutande reflektioner I nuläget mycket intressant utveckling kring: Samgåenden, uppköp och internationellt samarbete (såväl transportörer som terminaloperatörer) Upphandlingar/Försäljningar (Jernhusen, Göteborgs hamn, etc.) Fortsatt ökat intresse från åkerier (viktigt för innovationsgraden och det “multimodala tänket”) Affärsmodeller (ägandeskap, franchise, third-party access-Port of Antwerp) Fortsatt tillväxt (flaskhalsar: Infrastruktur, lok, vagnar, lokförare och i vis mån terminallägen/kapacitet)