Globala utmaningar - lokala lösningar Johan Kuylenstierna Executive Director, Stockholm Environment

”Sverige saknar strategi för trygg livsmedelsförsörjning” DN Debatt, 31 december 2012

Stabila priser?

Phosphorus Price Soared in World Bank Commodity Price Data (2010)

Population and resources "The power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man". ”

Källa: U.N. Population Division Urbanization & megacities 1950

Urbanization & megacities 2015 Källa: U.N. Population Division

IPCC 5th Assessment Report

Utsläpp, GHG, Sektorer

CO 2 GDP Billion tonnes / Billion USD current prices

Växthusgaser, Sverige

Källa: Naturvårdsverket I DN,

Tipping Points Related to 2°C-Guardrail Schellnhuber et al., under review.

“Innovating for Sustainable Growth: a Bioeconomy for Europe” 13 February 2012

Land for agriculture Source: FAO/SOLAW

Produktion, konsumtion, lager

China India Trend, fertilizers ( ) Africa Source: FAO/SOLAW

Trend - konstgödsel FAO, 2015

Better Growth, Better Climate: The New Climate Economy Report Commissioned by 7 countries: Colombia, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Norway, Sweden, South Korea, United Kingdom Led by a Global Commission: 24 former heads of state, CEOs and heads of international institutions. Chaired by Felipe Calderon, former President of Mexico Overseen by an Economic Advisory Panel of 14 world leading economists, chaired by Professor Lord Nicholas Stern Delivered by 8 research institutes:

Atlanta and Barcelona: Similar GDP, different CO2 Atlanta’s built-up area Barcelona’s built-up area Population: 5.25 million Urban area: 4,280 km 2 Carbon emissions: 7.5 tonnes CO 2 /ha/an (public+ private transport) Population: 5.33 million Urban area: 162 km2 Carbon emissions: 0.7 tonnes CO2/ha/an (public+ private transport) ATLANTABARCELONA

USD/MWh Current fossil fuel range, indicativeCurrent fossil fuel range, indicativeCurrent fossil fuel range, indicativeCurrent fossil fuel range, indicative Solar PV, historical Best utility-scale project, 2014Best utility-scale project, 2014Best utility-scale project, 2014Best utility-scale project, 2014 Sources: Citi Research 2012; IEA World Energy Outlook 2013; G. F Nemet, “Beyond the learning curve”, Energy Policy 34, (2006) Price on solar PV falling quickly

Southeast Asia, Baseline Water Stress and Power Plants

Southeast Asia, Long Term Change in Water Stress and Power Plants (2025, IPCC Scenario A1B)

China’s Loess Plateau shows how an agricultural landscape approach can deliver economic and climate benefits Source: World Bank project completion evaluations of the Loess Plateau Watershed Habilitation Projects I and II, 1999 and 2005.

Slutsatser – för diskussion Agendan breddas - komplexiteten ökar Snabba förändringar i omvärlden – begränsad förståelse Bioresurser allt viktigare – nya områden Marknad, priser, konkurrens – svårt…. En samlad politik – omvärld och prioriteringar Stark rådgivningskompetens viktigare än någonsin – fokus på möjligheter, ”Vinn-vinn för lantbruket och miljön”! Tycket på grundläggande resurser ökar

Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. Niels Bohr ( ) Thank you! Johan Kuylenstierna