Profu EUs energi- och klimatpaket och dess inverkan på de nordiska energisystemen - Resultat från NEP-projektet Thomas Unger, Profu Profu är ett oberoende konsult- och forskningsföretag inom energi, miljö och avfall (med kontor i Göteborg och Stockholm)

The EU energy- and climate-policy targets (” until 2020”) For the EU as a whole: Reduce GHG emissions by 20% until 2020 compared to 1990  CO 2 in ETS-sector 21% by 2020 rel. 2005,  CO 2 in non-ETS-sector 10% by 2020 rel Increase the share of renewables from 8,5% to 20% of total final energy use in 2020 Reduce total energy use by 20% until 2020 compared to a baseline projection for 2020  Significant impact on the Nordic energy systems that will affect most of the energy markets and sectors !

The NEP (Nordic Energy Perspectives) project An interdisciplinary Nordic research project Nordic focus in a European and global context Four main research areas: Markets and structures within the energy area Development towards lower CO 2 emissions and more renewables Security of supply and energy resources (e.g. potentials for renewables) Energy efficiency and resource management Researchers from all four Nordic countries: e.g. VTT, VATT, EME Analys, ECON, Göteborgs Universitet, XRGIA, Profu, CHALMERS.. Financiers from all four Nordic countries Phase II : (Phase I: )

-20% -16% -17% The EU CO 2 -reduction target for the Nordic countries (the ETS-sector and the non-ETS sector) The ETS sector (supply of elec+DH, industry,) No specific Nordic target but an all- European commitment of reducing CO 2 emissions by 21% by 2020 comprd. to 2005  CO 2 -price assumptions (e.g EUR/t) CO 2 -reduction by 2020 comprd. to 2005 The non-ETS sector (transports, res&comm, certain industries)

The renewable Directive and its target levels for the Nordic countries +13% +9% +10% In the base case, we assume: +130 TWh in the stationary system + 30 TWh in transports (= biof.-Dir) until 2020 (comprd. to 2005) for the Nordic countries as a whole Norway included through the EEA agreement

The scenarios of the ”EU ” analysis Reference scenario Existing policy instruments (incl 25 EUR/t, which we assume fulfills the CO 2 target for the EU in 2020)  How far do we reach towards our ”Nordic goals” with existing policy measures? ”Green Package” scenario Existing policy instruments+Renewable target according to EU Directive (+160 TWh renewable energy (final) including transports in the Nordic countries as a whole; Biofuel Directive in transports + ~30TWh) ”Extended green package” scenario As ”Green Package” but INCLUDING increased energy efficiency with 20 % in the Nordic countries as a whole (Biofuel Directive + ~1,7 million EVs in transports → Transports take their efficiency-target share)

If all ”20%-targets are implemented, total CO 2 reductions may approach 30% by 2020 !! If all ”EU 20%-targets” are implemented, total CO 2 reductions may approach 30% by 2020 !! ”Business-as -usual” (no add. policy. instr.) ”EU-20-20” by 2020 ”EU ” by 2020

Transports in 2005: ~30% of total Reductions are mainly carried out in the stationary energy sector (up to 25% of total in 2005) 2020 emissions in different scenarios Stat. energy in 2005: ~70% of total

The impact on renewables (+ 160 TWh in tot by 2020) - The ”Green Package” scenario Increase in the use of renewables compared to ~160 TWh

Förnybarhetsdirektivet kan väsentligt ändra den nordiska elbalansen gentemot Kontinentaleuropa Utan europeisk handel inom förnybarhets- direktivet kan vi få en nettoexport på ~10-15 TWh till Nordisk nettoimport Nordisk nettoexport

…men med EU-handel inom det förnybara direktivet  Ytterligare ökad elexport från Norden (~25-30 TWh) Diff: TWh

The increase of renewables by 2020 (”Green package” scenario, country-by-country) Roughly 50-60% of the increase occurs in supply of electricity and district heating

The impact on renewables - All scenarios (2020) Biofuel Directive + ~1.7 million EVs

Hur uppnå 20% effektivisering samfällt i Norden? - modellresultat plus kompletterande analys på energianvändningssidan Primärenergiviktning = 1 för kärnkraft Primärenergiviktning = 3,3 för kärnkraft Effektiviseringsåtgärder i el- och fjärrvärmeproduktionen: < 5% Konverteringar i bostäder, lokaler och industrin: > 5% Effektiviseringsåtgärder i bostäder, lokaler och industrin: ca 10% Åtgärder: KK → Vind, gaskraft,.. Åtgärder: KK→Elbesparingar,..

PJ Källor: Sweden: Energimyndigheten, Prognoser för utsläpp och upptag av växthusgaser, Fjärrsynprojekt 2009 Denmark: Energistyrelsen, Fremskrivning af Danmarks energiforbrug og udledning af drivhusgasser frem til 2025 Finland: Ministry for Employment and the Economy Norway: Enova Inbromsning av fjärrvärmen i Norden? - Kan förstärkas av effektiviseringsmålet

A large span in electricity-price development - but generally a stabilization at EUR/MWh Until May 2009 The shaded area indicates the interval of the main part of the model runs (including all models of the NEP project)

Important conclusions so far Much more at !!! The EU energy and climate package will significantly affect and involve all sectors The different EU goals may affect the energy markets in different/opposite ways Total Nordic CO 2 emissions may be reduced by ~ 30 % by 2020 (comprd to 2005) if the three EU goals are implemented Nordic electricity supply almost CO 2 -free by 2020 (nuclear, renew. but hardly CCS…) if EU targets are met (fossil share: ~5-10% of total supply) Energy-efficiency goal seems to dominate: most expensive and tends to ”solve” also the other two goals Energy-efficiency goal tends to dampen the increase in renewables (in absolute numbers) and to reduce the use of DH and electricity Trade-off between different sectors, e.g. ETS and non-ETS or heating market and electricity market  Important flexibility  Goals should not be too sector-specific !