BIO kundseminarium Göran Neider 1 Upplopp och andra hot ur kollektivt beteende skall förutses! Hur?

BIO kundseminarium Göran Neider 2 FOI-projekt 2003 … 2006 Beslutsstöd vid internationella operationer Tidig förvarning om upplopp – exempel på fallbaserat lärande i underrättelseprocessen Michael Malm, Göran Neider, FOI Peter Funk, Mälardalens Högskola referensgrupp: CS2, COS ur KS09

BIO kundseminarium Göran Neider 3 Resultat – tidig förvarning kunskap - ökas via erfarenheter insamla och återanvänd erfarenheter lokalt bearbeta erfarenheter lokalt + centralt utbildning FOI bidrar arbetsmetodik, verktyg informationsstruktur indikatorer – uppbyggnadsstöd - långsiktigt kunskap - ökas via erfarenheter insamla och återanvänd erfarenheter lokalt bearbeta erfarenheter lokalt + centralt utbildning FOI bidrar arbetsmetodik, verktyg informationsstruktur indikatorer – uppbyggnadsstöd - långsiktigt

BIO kundseminarium Göran Neider 4 Agenda Syfte Intuitivt beslutsfattande Indikatorer och kollektivt beteende Fallbaserat lärande Nytta och resultat Framtid - diskussion Syfte Intuitivt beslutsfattande Indikatorer och kollektivt beteende Fallbaserat lärande Nytta och resultat Framtid - diskussion

BIO kundseminarium Göran Neider 5 Syfte och målgrupp Utveckla förmågan att tidigt förutsäga händelser och händelseutveckling syfte: agera proaktivt avgränsning kollektivt beteende (ex upplopp) MOOTW internationella operationer Und-funktionen i samverkan - lokalt, centralt Utveckla förmågan att tidigt förutsäga händelser och händelseutveckling syfte: agera proaktivt avgränsning kollektivt beteende (ex upplopp) MOOTW internationella operationer Und-funktionen i samverkan - lokalt, centralt

BIO kundseminarium Göran Neider 6 Deluppgifter Metodik och Verktyg bearbetningsmetodik Kommunikation av erfarenheter organisatoriskt minne dialog mellan Und-nivåer Indikatorstruktur (dynamisk) på fält, före insats, taktiska kommandon, UndSäkC Metodik och Verktyg bearbetningsmetodik Kommunikation av erfarenheter organisatoriskt minne dialog mellan Und-nivåer Indikatorstruktur (dynamisk) på fält, före insats, taktiska kommandon, UndSäkC

BIO kundseminarium Göran Neider 7 Projekthistoria - val 2003 kollektivt beteende, beslutsmodeller fallbaserat lärande upploppet i Caglavica => nytt fall Gul server CTA-kurs + intervju CS2 + COS 2003 kollektivt beteende, beslutsmodeller fallbaserat lärande upploppet i Caglavica => nytt fall Gul server CTA-kurs + intervju CS2 + COS

BIO kundseminarium Göran Neider 8 Exempel Paris faser -Paris förspelutanförskap, gäng triggerbarn flyr, bränns ihjäl upplopp lokalt Clichy-sous-Bois motreaktion’..slödder..’ eskaleringveckor avklingarutmattning motivgäng

BIO kundseminarium Göran Neider 9 Exempel Paris’05 – KS09 - faser -Paris Kosovo förspelutanförskap, gäng besvikelse, etniciteter triggerbarn flyr, bränns ihjäl barn flyr, drunknar upplopp lokalt Clichy-sous-Bois Mitrovica motreaktion’..slödder..’serbblockad eskaleringveckordagar avklingarutmattning’utrensning’ motivgängetniciteter Ex värdebegrepp: känslor, stämningar, påverkan – representation, likhet

BIO kundseminarium Göran Neider 10 Recognition Primed Decision Model Experience the situation in a changing context Is Situation Typical?Diagnos ExpectanciesCues Action 1….n Goals Evaluate action (n) Will it work? Implement course of action Modify AnomaliClarify Yes Yes, but No Inference Moore data Source: ”Sources of Power” by Gary Klein

BIO kundseminarium Göran Neider 11 Sense of Coherence (SOC)

BIO kundseminarium Göran Neider 12 Emergent Violent Conflicts Structural factors : Background conditions that form the pre-condition of crises situations. Accelerators : Feedback events that rapidly increase the level of significance of the most volatile of the general conditions. Triggers : Sudden events that act as catalysts igniting a crises or conflict. Source:CIFP

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BIO kundseminarium Göran Neider 15 SIPRI Structural Indicators 1.Justice and human rights 1:1. Justice and the rule of law 1:2. Human rights 1:3. Civil society and media 1:4. Intervening variables 2. Socio-cultural factors 2:1. Ethnic tension and division 2:2. Political exploitation of ethnic, cultural and identity differences 2:3. Structural and historical factors 3. Internal security setting 3:1. Demographic/population pressure 3:2. Non-economic social development and regional inequalities 3:3. Criminalisation 3:4. Violence, cohesion, and internally displaced people/refugees 3:5. History of armed conflict and structural instability 3:6. Lack of tools and institutions of conflict prevention 3:7. Regime type and media 4. Geopolitical setting 4:1. Regional and international setting 4:2. International linkage 4:3. External (territorial) disputes 4:4. External support and intervention 1.Justice and human rights 1:1. Justice and the rule of law 1:2. Human rights 1:3. Civil society and media 1:4. Intervening variables 2. Socio-cultural factors 2:1. Ethnic tension and division 2:2. Political exploitation of ethnic, cultural and identity differences 2:3. Structural and historical factors 3. Internal security setting 3:1. Demographic/population pressure 3:2. Non-economic social development and regional inequalities 3:3. Criminalisation 3:4. Violence, cohesion, and internally displaced people/refugees 3:5. History of armed conflict and structural instability 3:6. Lack of tools and institutions of conflict prevention 3:7. Regime type and media 4. Geopolitical setting 4:1. Regional and international setting 4:2. International linkage 4:3. External (territorial) disputes 4:4. External support and intervention 5. Military and security 5:1. Arms, small arms 5:2. Military expenditure 5:3. Military forces and control 5:4. Non-state controlled armed forces 6. Environment and resource management 6:1. Environmental disaster, scarcity of natural resources 6.2. Resource management 6:3. Problematic resources (eg oil, diamonds, and gold) 6:4. Competition over (scarce) resources (eg water) 7. Governance and political stability 7:1. State/regime legitimacy 7:2. Governance 7:3. Political stability, opposition- and elite groups 7:4. Regime type 7:5. Corruption 8. Socio-economic factors 8:1. Social development and equality 8:2. Economic performance and wealth 8:3. Economic stability and performance 9. Regional and country specific variables

BIO kundseminarium Göran Neider 16 Examples of Structural Indicators Dissatisfaction with the management of state affairs Censorship Corruption, (institutional, commercial, political) Increased tension between regime supporters and opposition groups Political violence (assassinations, coups, hostage- taking etc.) Dissatisfaction with the management of state affairs Institutionalized persecution, or perception of (economic, political etc.) General despair (linked to justice, economic welfare, personal/family security) Abuses of power Increased opposition activity Increase in size and cohesion of opposition groups Repression of political opposition Radicalization of opposition (militarization, rise in ethno-nationalism, increasingly irredentist agenda, more violent or conflict-generating activities undertaken etc.) Protest action (strikes, picketing etc.) Militarization (of society or political groups) Dissatisfaction with the management of state affairs Censorship Corruption, (institutional, commercial, political) Increased tension between regime supporters and opposition groups Political violence (assassinations, coups, hostage- taking etc.) Dissatisfaction with the management of state affairs Institutionalized persecution, or perception of (economic, political etc.) General despair (linked to justice, economic welfare, personal/family security) Abuses of power Increased opposition activity Increase in size and cohesion of opposition groups Repression of political opposition Radicalization of opposition (militarization, rise in ethno-nationalism, increasingly irredentist agenda, more violent or conflict-generating activities undertaken etc.) Protest action (strikes, picketing etc.) Militarization (of society or political groups) Increase in terrorism Human rights abuses Increase in organized crime High or increasing crime rate Authorities sanction arming of civilians in border areas Arms trafficking Militarization (of society or political groups) Proliferation of arms High no. of suicides Exploitation of divisions/tensions (political / media propaganda) Perception that terrorist activities are related to / supported by elements in neighboring states Perception that Federal government encourages and manipulates internal conflicts Influx of refugees / IDPs (conflict over the return of displaced people or influx of refugees) Emigration, particularly of minorities or elites Political instability and violence (coups, assassinations etc.) Uncertain period of political transition (upcoming elections, newly autonomous region establishing self-government etc.)

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BIO kundseminarium Göran Neider 18 The dewpoint is this critical temperature at which condensation occurs

BIO kundseminarium Göran Neider 19 Examples of Event Indicators Arrest February 16 of four former KLA commanders An attempted attack on Minister Ethem Ceku on February 21. Nights of the fires celebration An explosives attack on the residence of President Ibrahim Rugova on March 12 Large amounts of explosives planted in the immediate vicinity of UNMIK head- quarters At about 8 p.m. March 15, unknown attackers fired from a car at an eighteen- year-old Serb. Blocking of the main highway (Pristina- Skopje) Three young Albanian children were said to have been chased into the Ibar river March 16. On March 16 war associations organized widespread demonstrations Arrest February 16 of four former KLA commanders An attempted attack on Minister Ethem Ceku on February 21. Nights of the fires celebration An explosives attack on the residence of President Ibrahim Rugova on March 12 Large amounts of explosives planted in the immediate vicinity of UNMIK head- quarters At about 8 p.m. March 15, unknown attackers fired from a car at an eighteen- year-old Serb. Blocking of the main highway (Pristina- Skopje) Three young Albanian children were said to have been chased into the Ibar river March 16. On March 16 war associations organized widespread demonstrations Closed schools Closed shops/restaurants Children throwing stones Chanting Snipers Dark glasses and faces covered with scarves The arrival of spring and first good weather Newspaper headlines: “UNMIK watch out there is gunpowder for you to” Cut out of water Aggressive graffiti Electricity cut off Ignored calls from local leaders to go home Forbidden symbols is shown openly Increased number of telephone calls Beatings Involvement of outsiders

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BIO kundseminarium Göran Neider 21 Examples of imminent riot indicators Orientation.Crowd dynamics change from people milling around and talking among themselves in isolated groups to a more collective focus concentrated on a single objective Massing. The crowd begins to mass or tighten into a large contiguous body from a loose formation to a static congregation located in a more concentrated area Chanting. People may begin chanting slogans or yelling ethnically charged rhetoric or obscenities. Chanting can indicate an increase in crowd intensity. Signaling. Signaling occurs when members of the crowd position themselves to communicate and synchronize crowd actions tied to a plan with specific objectives. Signaling may indicate the intent to escalate the message through the use of violent or unlawful acts. Blocking. The crowd may attempt to block public thoroughfares. This escalates the level of attention given to the crowd's message or prevents freedom of movement to opposing persons or groups Arming. Any signs that the crowd is arming itself with objects (for example, bottles, rocks, and sticks) is a clear indication of impending danger. Outside Influence. The presence of people from outside the community may indicate more sophisticated planning and resources than would otherwise be expected from local community members. Agitators. Agitators and instigators are common elements associated with civil disturbances. They often provide a catalyst to incite the crowd toward violence. Absence of children. Recent civil disturbances have shown that even when children were initially present at a rally, they were absent before the civil disturbance erupted with violence. While the presence of children is not a guarantee of a peaceful assembly, the removal of children from a rally may provide early warning for a pending escalation of hostilities or a full-blown riot Orientation.Crowd dynamics change from people milling around and talking among themselves in isolated groups to a more collective focus concentrated on a single objective Massing. The crowd begins to mass or tighten into a large contiguous body from a loose formation to a static congregation located in a more concentrated area Chanting. People may begin chanting slogans or yelling ethnically charged rhetoric or obscenities. Chanting can indicate an increase in crowd intensity. Signaling. Signaling occurs when members of the crowd position themselves to communicate and synchronize crowd actions tied to a plan with specific objectives. Signaling may indicate the intent to escalate the message through the use of violent or unlawful acts. Blocking. The crowd may attempt to block public thoroughfares. This escalates the level of attention given to the crowd's message or prevents freedom of movement to opposing persons or groups Arming. Any signs that the crowd is arming itself with objects (for example, bottles, rocks, and sticks) is a clear indication of impending danger. Outside Influence. The presence of people from outside the community may indicate more sophisticated planning and resources than would otherwise be expected from local community members. Agitators. Agitators and instigators are common elements associated with civil disturbances. They often provide a catalyst to incite the crowd toward violence. Absence of children. Recent civil disturbances have shown that even when children were initially present at a rally, they were absent before the civil disturbance erupted with violence. While the presence of children is not a guarantee of a peaceful assembly, the removal of children from a rally may provide early warning for a pending escalation of hostilities or a full-blown riot

BIO kundseminarium Göran Neider 22 Recognition Primed Decision Model Experience the situation in a changing context Is Situation Typical?Diagnos ExpectanciesCues Action 1….n Goals Evaluate action (n) Will it work? Implement course of action Modify AnomaliClarify Yes Yes, but No Inference Moore data Source: ”Sources of Power” by Gary Klein

BIO kundseminarium Göran Neider 23 Fallbaserat lärande (CBR) Case-Base Reasoning analogi-baserat identifiera, återanvända lösningar NÄR? komplext bristande individuella fall => beslut analogi-baserat identifiera, återanvända lösningar NÄR? komplext bristande individuella fall => beslut

BIO kundseminarium Göran Neider 24 CBR processen identifiera fallet - likhet välj det bästa - mått revidera föreslagen lösning, värdera inlärning (anpassa) (Aamodts 4 R) Data bas med fall Retrieve Reuse Revise Retain Lagra det nya fallet problem Omvärlds- kunskap

BIO kundseminarium Göran Neider 25 CBR –jämför händelser – likhetsberäkning (exempel)

BIO kundseminarium Göran Neider 26 Observation – händelse - fall Observationer – ’fakta 7S, indikatorer Händelse – bedömning sammanhangspåverkan (hierarki), typer: behållare, jämförelseobjekt, reella, hypotetiska, härledda Fall – en utvald sekvens av händelser som berör ett utfall Observationer – ’fakta 7S, indikatorer Händelse – bedömning sammanhangspåverkan (hierarki), typer: behållare, jämförelseobjekt, reella, hypotetiska, härledda Fall – en utvald sekvens av händelser som berör ett utfall

BIO kundseminarium Göran Neider 27 KS09 exempel på observationer tid Attentat mot domsstol attentat attentat mot president blockad pamfletter upploppshantering – KFOR beslut – varför?! hätskare stämning - ökar studentdemonstrationer Olycka + propaganda = trigger Hög arbetslöshet Holkari löften KFOR ersätts med polis KFOR ersätts med polis Upplopp i Mitrovica Upplopp demonstration Serbnärvaro ökar dec jan feb mars

BIO kundseminarium Göran Neider 28 Observationer – händelse - fall Fall – utvald sekvens av händelser, anpassas Händelser - bedömningar Observationer – 7S + indikatorer H H O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H tid

BIO kundseminarium Göran Neider 29 Fallets behandlingscykel tid Utspelas S2 lagrar STEMP händelse stämning beslut utfall händelse stämning beslut utfall händelse stämning beslut utfall händelse stämning beslut utfall händelse Skapa fall lokalt STEMP händelse stämning beslut utfall händelse STEMP händelse stämning beslut utfall händelse STEMP+ Händelse+ händelse stämning beslut utfall händelse STEMP+ Händelse+ händelse stämning beslut utfall händelse Bearbeta lokalt, centralt Återanvänd av nästa S2 CBR-databas + system händelse Frågor om likhet Frågor om likhet tid Utspelas händelse stämning beslut utfall händelse stämning beslut utfall händelse

BIO kundseminarium Göran Neider 30 Tidig förvarning ur erfarenheter Aktuell sök likhet i bibliotek ger 1.följd av händelser fall studera följder 2.händelse händelser ny eller igenkänd 3.viktig händelse händelser varning, sök fall 4.händelse händelser indatastöd 5.Indikator händelser indikatoruppbyggnad Aktuell sök likhet i bibliotek ger 1.följd av händelser fall studera följder 2.händelse händelser ny eller igenkänd 3.viktig händelse händelser varning, sök fall 4.händelse händelser indatastöd 5.Indikator händelser indikatoruppbyggnad nu fall biblioteksfall x x y y z z a a b b c c d d e e f f M M g g h h i i u u

BIO kundseminarium Göran Neider 31 Fallens bearbetning indikatorer representation, likhetsmått påverkan, vikt (sammanhang, mått) bearbetning auktorisering - standardfall normalfall förhindrade hot (lyckad åtgärd) skapade fall (ideal) analys härledda, hypotetiska händelser indikatorer representation, likhetsmått påverkan, vikt (sammanhang, mått) bearbetning auktorisering - standardfall normalfall förhindrade hot (lyckad åtgärd) skapade fall (ideal) analys härledda, hypotetiska händelser

BIO kundseminarium Göran Neider 32 Nytta kommunikation av erfarenheter insats organisatoriskt minne Lesson learned utbildning utveckling (simuleringsunderlag) kommunikation av erfarenheter insats organisatoriskt minne Lesson learned utbildning utveckling (simuleringsunderlag)

BIO kundseminarium Göran Neider 33 Framtid Planer Behov bekräftelse samarbete personer: ref-grp, utveckling, indikatorer NBG 2008, 2011 Planer Behov bekräftelse samarbete personer: ref-grp, utveckling, indikatorer NBG 2008, 2011

BIO kundseminarium Göran Neider 34 ATK presentation av FOI-projekt Beslutsstöd vid internationella operationer Tidig förvarning om upplopp – exempel på fallbaserat lärande i underrättelseprocessen Göran Neider, FOI Michael Malm, FOI

BIO kundseminarium Göran Neider 35 Extra bilder FN aktörer + NATO stabsstruktur IDEA event structure Lofland collective behaviour Turner, Kilian collective behaviour FN aktörer + NATO stabsstruktur IDEA event structure Lofland collective behaviour Turner, Kilian collective behaviour

BIO kundseminarium Göran Neider 36 FN aktörer & NATO stabsstruktur Nivå Aktörer internationellt i Sverige Strategisk allmän FN regering militär NATO (EU?) ÖB Nivå Aktörer internationellt i Sverige Strategisk allmän FN regering militär NATO (EU?) ÖB Operativ Joint …J2, J3…. OPIL.J2,J3.. vapengrensöverskridande Taktisk Air Marine Ground division brigad …G2, G3.. NIC..G2.. ATK Stridsteknisk bataljon (Staff)..S2, S3… kompanier förbanden Polis : UNMIK, lokal Hjälporganisationer ( NGO ) Media MUST

BIO kundseminarium Göran Neider 37 IDEA Event Indicator Classification 01: Yield 02: Comment 03: Consult 04: Endorse 05: Promise 06: Grant 07: Reward 08: Agree 09: Request 10: Propose 11: Reject 12: Accuse 13: Complain 01: Yield 02: Comment 03: Consult 04: Endorse 05: Promise 06: Grant 07: Reward 08: Agree 09: Request 10: Propose 11: Reject 12: Accuse 13: Complain 15: Demand 16: Warn 17: Threaten 18: Demonstrate 19: Sanction 21: Seize 22: Force Use 23: Economic activity 29: Other human action 52: Accident

BIO kundseminarium Göran Neider 38 TEMPORAL FRAME SPATIAL FRAME Individual Behavior Sequence Collective Behavior Sequence Gatherings Events Campaigns Waves Trends Years, Mounths, weeks Days, Hours, minutes Hours, Minutes, seconds Minutes, Seconds, Split seconds MICROMACRO Källa: Lofland

BIO kundseminarium Göran Neider 39 RUMOR PROCESS CONVERGENCE Of persons with diverse motives THE MILLING PROCESS KEYNOTING via differential expressions of diverse motives EMERGENT NORM As definition of situation COLLECTIVE BEHAVIOR PROBLEMATIC EVENTS CONDITIONS FACILITATING COMMUNICATION AND MOBILIZATION General characteristics of all crowds Emergent norm teorin enl Turner och Killian, 1972,1987