Use of admin data in statistics – A case study from Sweden

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Presentationens avskrift:

Use of admin data in statistics – A case study from Sweden Oslo City Group 09-05-2017 Massimo Di Biaggio

Agenda Intro monthly oil and biofuel survey Use of the statistics and general energy market trends New monthly survey Use of admin sources: Rail transport Domestic navigation Sector-specific fuel deliveries Questions?

Monthly oil and biofuels survey (survey 401) Collects monthly supply and deliveries of: Oil and petroleum products (incl. additives) Coal and coke Natural gas and LNG (used as feed stocks) Biofuels (for vehicle use) Population: producers, wholesale/retail, traders, ind. users Distribution and use of the statistics Monthly publishing, also as microdata (non confidential) Used by a large number of national and international authorities, interest organisations and private companies Developed after the oil crisis in the 1970’ties Kemiföretagen i Stenungsund och Vattenfall = cirka 2.500 anställda Nästan 50 års erfarenhet One cracker plant and four PE plants 1.000 employees in Stenungsund Focusing on infrastructure product mix (pipes, and energy and telecommunication cables)

Users of the statistics Environmental Protection Agency National Accounts Industry Index Bunkers and Stock Calculations Price Index Energy Consumtion FN Transport Agency SMED OECD Statistics Sweden Transport Analysis Agency Oil & Biofuel Survey KomOlj ENKv Eur´Observer Security of supply Energy statistics Svebio Eurostat IEA/ FN SPBI Olika interna rapporteringar, energibalanser, input nationalräkenskaperna, intl. Rapport, beredskapslagring, förnyelsebara målen och klimatrapporteringen. Styrs av många lagar, statistik, klimatrapp. Förordning etc. Energy-balance Environm. analys BP London FG Energy Monthlygas Energy systems Govmnt ■/■ Important users (external / internal) ■ Other users ■ ”End customer” ■ Secondary products Forecasts/ reports

Balancing supply and deliveries? Definitions? New products? Quality / uncertainties? Final consumers? Users of the statistics? Main problem of the old survey: Survey is out-of-date; old definitions and complex instructions High burden on respondents - some data is no longer used No space for new feedstocks or new products Reporting in m3 and not in in tonnes “Ad hoc” design of target population Final destination (sector) of deliveries is many times unknown Large uncertainties in some of the produced statistics Population?

General energy market trends Increased industry complexity+new fuels – expert knowledge required Lots of routes to produce e.g. synthetic gasoline (biofuels, NG, oil…) Petrochemical industry goes green (energy / non-energy use) EU – free trade make flows in/out of Sweden less transparent Refineries tend to outsource deliveries to transport companies Biofuels for transport increase substantially in Sweden Other non-fuel products (e.g. lubricants) increase bio-content Variabler och vilka som använder vad. Vad har man kommit fram till efter kartläggningen? En summering, graf, som visar vilka variabler som används av många användare och vilka som inte används? Vilka användare som är prioriterade och stora användare?

New monthly survey - improvments Improved documentation and defintions Survey only collects info used by prioritized users Enlargement of scope; e.g. all liquid biofuels, new products, etc. Mass balance approach: information collected in tonnes Only deliveries to some sectors is specified Use of other administrative sources: Survey population (drawn from several adm. sources) Domestic navigation (modelling) Rail transport (modelling + co-collection) Other sectors (data from other sector-specific surveys) Variabler och vilka som använder vad. Vad har man kommit fram till efter kartläggningen? En summering, graf, som visar vilka variabler som används av många användare och vilka som inte används? Vilka användare som är prioriterade och stora användare?

Rail transport Co-collection of data in cooperation with the Swedish Transport Agency Modelling of quartely fuel and electricity consumption using ”trainkilometers” Yearly comparision of yearly and quarterly figures and revision of parameters in the model

Modelling of the fuel use in domestic navigation Use of real-time data from ship movements (AIS data) Vessel properties taken from the IHS Fairplay database Motor is the SMHI’s Shipair model Validation of model against 2013-2015 fuel deliveries data Approx. 2400-2800 vessels did domestic routes in 2013-15 Development and validation of harbor and bunker areas Validations: comparison with vessel-specific real consumption, other navigation models, vessel properties, etc. Variabler och vilka som använder vad. Vad har man kommit fram till efter kartläggningen? En summering, graf, som visar vilka variabler som används av många användare och vilka som inte används? Vilka användare som är prioriterade och stora användare?

Fuel intensity on domestic routes

Validation of the navigation model

Validation of the Stena Spirit Ferry Days

Fuel consumption - results

Quarterly estimates of sectors-specific fuel deliveries Industry + heat and electricity production: Quarterly fuel survey Households: Figures from yearly sector-specific surveys adjusted according to the temperature development Figures from the “Non Road Mobile Machinery Model” Service and public sector: Figures from yearly sector-specific surveys adjusted according to the temperature development Forestry, agricultures and fisheries: Figures from yearly sector-specific surveys adjusted with evolution of the added value. Variabler och vilka som använder vad. Vad har man kommit fram till efter kartläggningen? En summering, graf, som visar vilka variabler som används av många användare och vilka som inte används? Vilka användare som är prioriterade och stora användare?

THANK YOU FOR LISTENING! Massimo Di Biaggio massimo.dibiaggio@energimyndigheten.se Variabler och vilka som använder vad. Vad har man kommit fram till efter kartläggningen? En summering, graf, som visar vilka variabler som används av många användare och vilka som inte används? Vilka användare som är prioriterade och stora användare?