Acknowledgements to Fritz Wagner. Electricity distribution in Sweden and the Nordic countries; Sweden’s electricity fossil-free but not (yet) nuclear power free electricity system. Sept. 2016 Elisabeth Rachlew, Physics, Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) Stockholm and Energy Panel, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences (KVA) Acknowledgements to Fritz Wagner.

Outline Some history for Sweden nuclear power Sweden and its neighbours Results of EPJ study, Wagner&Rachlew - --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- During 2015-2016 political energy study and agreement In 2015-2016 the nuclear power companies tell they will close 4 reactors due to low profit 2016- Wagner & Rachlew paper, Study on a hypothetical replacement of nuclear electricity by wind power in Sweden (EPJ Plus)- conclusion, need a back-up - gas 2016- Sweden electricity distribution company (Svenska Kraftnät, SVK) says Sweden will have difficulties with power if four reactors are closed- need backup-gas. Future- ? Fossil-free- ”renewable”, Swedish forest- bio-

CO2-free electricity in EU-27 (2008 Eurostat) Germany38% Sven Kullander Berlin 20110428

History of nuclear power in Sweden 1954 first smallreactor, heavy water 1964-Ågesta- two heavy water reactors 1968- proliferation agreement 1970s six light water reactors built (ABB&Westinghouse) 1975 another six reactors built 1976- in the election- Palme and Fälldin debate the nuclear power (a fantastic energy debate, can still be heard) 1980- referendum- nuclear power closed by 2010 if sufficient alternatives exist. 1986-2006 Law on prohibition on ”thinking and planning nuclear power” 1999 first reactor closed (Barsebäck, 600 MW) 2005 second reactor closed (Barsebäck, 600 MW) 2016- Nuclear power companies say 4 reactors will be closed (R1,R2, O1,O2 before planned time, not sufficiently profitable)

Electricity production from nuclear power 1964 to 2009

Sweden total CO₂ emission Mton 1970-2013 Källa: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Energimyndigheten (% fossilt utan utrikes transporter och användning för icke energi-ändamål)

Sweden •From Kiruna to Malmö ~1900 km (Stockholm-Berlin 1700 km) •528 447 km2, 10 milj (Belgium 30500 km2, 11 milj) •From Kiruna to Malmö ~1900 km (Stockholm-Berlin 1700 km) •More than 60% lives in the bottom third of Sweden •3 Nuclear reactor site, Gothenburg, Stockholm and Kalmar •All national rivers and hydropower stations in the very north (no pump stations) •Most new on-land wind built in the north •Four distribution regions- usually most expensive in the south- bottlenecks between the three regions. •Sweden SVK plan to spend 5 billions € next ten years for the improved distribution net. • Nordic distribution net and market (Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland, now also Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania to be included)

Sweden el-energy production 1970-2014

Electricty production in Sweden

KVA Energy Panel work- El-energy production 2008 and 2050

Final energy consumption in Sweden 2008 and 2050

Sweden El-power production May 2016

Wind power production and export May 2016

Överföringskapacitet inom Sverige och med grannländerna, MW Det svenska stamnätet med Prognos Elöverskott resp elunderskott topplasttimmen vintern2015-2016 Konsekvenser av avställning av: O1, O2, R1&R2–ca 2860 MW(inst. effekt) ochKarlsh.&Stenungs.- 1330MW Källa: Svenska Kraftnät Finland Norr SE1 NULÄGE: O2 avställd Elöverskott +2695 MW O1,O2,R1&R2 Avställda: MW Norge 600 1100 Stamnät 3300 Elöverskott +2695 MW Norge 850 SE2 Elöverskott +4393 MW 3300 Elöverskott +4393 MW 7300 Kan överföras 2695+4393= 7088 MW Norge 2145 Kan överf. 2695+4393= 7088 MW Finland Syd SE3 800 7300 Elunderskott Utan reserv – 3606 MW Elundersk. Ingen reserv -5613 MW Väst Danmark Kan överföras 7088-3606= 3402 MW Litauen Kan överföras 7088-5613= 1475 MW 740 5900 700 OBS! Elundersk. -2680 MW Marginal -1205 MW 1475-2680 5900 Elunderskott Utan reserv –2680MW Marginal: 722 MW (3402-2680) Öst Danmark SE4 1700 Polen Tyskland SE4 blir det stora problemområdet vid stängning av reaktorerna. ny produktion måste tillföras i SE4 och/eller ny produktion installeras i norr med förstärkning av stamnätet i snitt SE1-SE2-SE3 Även om överföringsskapacitet till grannländerna finns, är detta ingen garanti för tillgänglighet 600 600 600

Nordens el production March 2015 Effekt MW Källa: Elstatistik 15

F Wagner, E Rachlew, Study on a hypothetical replacement of nuclear electricity by wind power in Sweden, EPJ Plus, 131, 173 (2016) Sweden 16 load wind Hydro Nuclear Bio-mass 134 TWh 10 TWh 62 TWh 64 TWh 8.1 TWh present situation w/o nuclear on the basis of the first two weeks in November 2013 The use of fossil power stations seems unavoidable. Increase of CO2 by ~50%

Sweden At constant hydropower: (1) 9 GW nuclear → 63.8 TWh or 17 At constant hydropower: (1) 9 GW nuclear → 63.8 TWh or 22.3 GW wind + 8.6 GW back-up → 64,8 TWh. With gas: Increase in CO2-emission by 50%. Additional issues: PV cannot replace the fossil back-up Too little surplus, thanks to hydropower, to replace the back-up by pumped storage

Conclusions The capacity from hydro (mainly running rivers no pump station) not sufficient to balance the expansion from wind and PV. Large dynamic region is required with fast response function to balance the variations Possible solution- build up gas turbines This would increase the CO2 emission in Sweden by 50% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - Further studies on capacity from biomass Research needed on full systems, energy storage, transport sector

Political energy agreement, June 2016 After one year of many seminars, studies, reports...- the agreement concerns only electricity- the conclusion was GOAL: By the latest 2045 Sweden should have zero emission of GHG By 2040 renewable el-energy production (a goal not a stopping point for nuclear power) Nuclear power New can be built on the existing sites No government support The special power tax that has been increased will be decreased, gone by 2017. Hydro Sweden will follow EU The “national” rivers will not be built out Increase in hydro power by increase in power of the present stations The special “building” tax will be decreased Renewable energy Will be further increased with special tax support. Distribution Increased distribution within the Nordic countries. Sweden will move forward with more distribution within the EU countries.

The energy transition

Electricity is the future melody