Klimatförändringen - Ger senaste forskning och debatt anledning till omvärdering? Sten Bergström SMHI Östersund 17 september 2010.

En presentation över ämnet: "Klimatförändringen - Ger senaste forskning och debatt anledning till omvärdering? Sten Bergström SMHI Östersund 17 september 2010."— Presentationens avskrift:

1 Klimatförändringen - Ger senaste forskning och debatt anledning till omvärdering? Sten Bergström SMHI Östersund 17 september 2010

2 http://www.ipcc.ch WGII WGI WGIII IPCCs tre huvudrapporter

3 InterAcademy Council (IAC) Review of the Processes and Procedures of the IPCC (August 30, 2010) Committee to Review the IPCC Harold T. SHAPIRO, Chair, Princeton University, USA Roseanne DIAB, Vice Chair, Academy of Science of South Africa, South Africa Carlos Henrique de BRITO CRUZ, State of São Paulo Research Foundation and University of Campinas, Brazil Maureen CROPPER, University of Maryland and Resources for the Future, USA FANG Jingyun, Peking University, P.R. China Louise O. FRESCO, University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands Syukuro MANABE, Princeton University, USA Goverdhan MEHTA, University of Hyderabad, India Mario MOLINA, University of California, San Diego, USA, and Center for Strategic Studies in Energy and the Environment, Mexico Peter WILLIAMS, The Royal Society, UK Ernst-Ludwig Winnacker, International Human Frontier Science Program Organization, France ZAKRI Abdul Hamid, Ministry of Science, Technology & Innovation, Malaysia Staff for the IPCC Review Anne LINN, Study Director, National Research Council, USA Tracey ELLIOTT, The Royal Society, UK William KEARNEY, National Research Council, USA Stuart LECKIE, The Royal Society, UK Tu NGUYEN, InterAcademy Council Jason ORTEGO, National Research Council, USA Greg SYMMES, National Research Council, USA

4 InterAcademy Council (IAC) Review of the Processes and Procedures of the IPCC (August 30, 2010) KEY RECOMMENDATIONS Governance and Management Review Process Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty Communications Transparency http://reviewipcc.interacademycouncil.net/report.html

5 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Climatic Data Center As appearing in the June 2010 issue (Vol. 91) of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS). http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate/2009.php

6 Fig. 2.5. Time series from a range of indicators that would be expected to correlate strongly with the surface record. Note that stratospheric cooling is an expected consequence of greenhouse gas increases. A version of this figure with full references is available at www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of- climate/.

7 ”A comprehensive review of key climate indicators confirms the world is warming and the past decade was the warmest on record. More than 300 scientists from 48 countries analyzed data on 37 climate indicators, including sea ice, glaciers and air temperatures. A more detailed review of 10 of these indicators, selected because they are clearly and directly related to surface temperatures, all tell the same story: global warming is undeniable.” 2009 State of the climate - Highlights National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Climatic Data Center As appearing in the June 2010 issue (Vol. 91) of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS).

8 Temperaturöverskott i juli 2010

9 Sources and parameters: GHCN_GISS_HR2SST_1200km_Anom07_2010_2010_1951_1980 Note: Gray areas signify missing data. Note: Ocean data are not used over land nor within 100km of a reporting land station.

10 GISS Surface Temperature Analysis http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/

11 Isutbredning i Arktis http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

12 Vad händer med havet?

13 Så här sammanfattade FNs klimatpanel frågan om stigande havsnivåer i januari 2007: The sea level will rise 18 - 59 cm until 2100 + some 20 cm for local effects in the North Sea ”Dynamical processes related to ice flow not included in current models but suggested by recent observations could increase the vulnerability of the ice sheets to warming, increasing future sea level rise. Understanding of these processes is limited and there is no consensus on their magnitude.” May lead to additional 20 cm

14 Sea level rise 2050: + 0.4 m 2100: + 0.65 - 1.30 m 2200: + 2 - 4 m

15 Some recent assessments of sea level rise by 2100 DateSourceReference period SLR about 2100 (cm) January 2007IPCC1980-199918-59 (excl. ice dynamics) Autumn 2008Dutch Delta committee199055-120 April 2009Rummukainen och Källén2009”About 1 m in 100 years” June 2009Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, Vietnam 1980-199975 (65-100) June 2009UK Climate Projections science report 1980-199911,6 – 75,8 around UK and Ireland November 2009 Copenhagen diagnosis1980-1999“ at least twice as much as projected by Working Group1 of the IPCC AR4” “it may well exceed 1 m” November 2009 NOAA”by the end of this century” 3 – 4 feet (90-120 cm) November 2009 Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency PBL m.fl. 199055 -110 (40 -105 locally for Holland)

16 Räkna med landhöjning i Sverige!

17

18 Mareografen på Skeppsholmen i Stockholm, där SMHI och dess föregångare har registrerat vattenståndet sedan 1889

19 Havsnivåerna i Stockholm 1774-2009

20 Nya klimatscenarier ger mer detaljerad information

21 2014-11-24 Regional modelling Local-regional studies Global modelling

22 Climate projections used thus far

23 Län där anpassningsstudier gjorts eller pågår i samarbete mellan SGI och SMHI

24 Temperaturen i Kronobergs län © SMHI 2010

25 Nederbörden i Kronobergs län © SMHI 2010

26 Resultat Q100: Kronobergs län (Mörrumsån) © SMHI 2010

27 Ger senaste forskning och debatt anledning till omvärdering?  Egentligen inte, men vi har fått mer detaljerade resultat  Klimathotet kvarstår och bekräftas av nya observationer

28 Tack för uppmärksamheten!