Division of Nuclear Physics,

En presentation över ämnet: "Division of Nuclear Physics,"— Presentationens avskrift:

1 Division of Nuclear Physics,
Sot – En möjlighet att mildra både klimatförändringar och häloseffekter SLF, Stockholm, 24 April 2013 Erik Swietlicki Professor Division of Nuclear Physics, Lund University P.O. Box 118, SE Lund, Sweden

2 Kyler vår planet men dödar mäniskor!
Luftburna partiklar – Kyler vår planet men dödar mäniskor! Konflikt mellan ”positiv” klimatpåverakan (avkylande) effekt och negativa hälsoeffekter. Sot är unikt på så sätt att det är ENBART DÅLIGT! Sot värmer och dödar!

3 Reduktion av sot-emissionerna (BC)
Win-win situation Reduktion av sot-emissionerna (BC) Om vi lyckas reducera utsläppen av sot kan vi mildra uppvärmningen av klimatet, skydda människors hälsa.

4 Varmare klimat! Infraröd värmestrålning 342 W/m2 Kortvågig
solstrålning (synligt ljus) Växthusgaser (CO2, metan ...) förhindrar värmestrålning från att försvinna ut i rymden Varmare klimat!

5 Indirekt effekt av aerosoler på klimatet
This picture nicely illustrates the concept of the indirect aerosol effect: Suitable aerosols act as cloud condensation nuclei and therefore increase the number of cloud droplets. With limited availability of water vapor the cloud droplets are typically smaller leading to an increased albedo. The satellite image shows so called ship tracks where ships inject aerosols in the overlying stratocumulus deck causing a locally higher albedo. Plymer från fartyg över havet (ship tracks). Innehåller både sot och sulfat. 5

6 WHO classified diesel engine exhaust as carcinogenic to humans.
12 June 2012 WHO classified diesel engine exhaust as carcinogenic to humans.

7 Health effects of black carbon
This report presents the results of a systematic review of evidence of the health effects of black carbon (BC). The Task Force on Health agreed that a reduction in exposure to PM2.5 containing BC and other combustion-related PM material for which BC is an indirect indicator should lead to a reduction in the health effects associated with PM. The Task Force recommended that PM2.5 should continue to be used as the primary metric in quantifying human exposure to PM and the health effects of such exposure, and for predicting the benefits of exposure reduction measures. The use of BC as an additional indicator may be useful in evaluating local action aimed at reducing the population’s exposure to combustion PM (for example, from motorized traffic). WHO, 2012.

8 Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone
Black carbon and tropospheric ozone have detrimental impacts on health, climate and the environment. This assessment looks into all aspects of anthropogenic emissions of black carbon and tropospheric ozone precursors, such as methane. It also examines a large number of technically feasible measures to reduce harmful emissions and identifies 16 measures that would produce important climate, health and crop yield benefits. UNEP/WMO, 2011.

9 Near-term Climate Protection and Clean Air Benefits: Actions for Controlling Short-Lived Climate Forcers - A UNEP Synthesis Report This report addresses the mitigation of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) and its key role in air pollution reduction, climate protection and sustainable development. SLCFs are substances in the atmosphere that contribute to global warming and have relatively short lifetimes in the atmosphere. The focus is on three SLCFs – black carbon, tropospheric ozone and methane – because reducing them will provide significant benefits through improved air quality and a slowing of near-term climate change. UNEP, 2011.

10 CCAC – Climate and Clean Air Coalition
CCAC – Climate and Clean Air Coalition Short-lived Climate Pollutants (SLCP) The Pufendorf Institute A

11 Report to US Congress on Black Carbon
This report synthesizes and assesses available scientific information on the current and future impacts of black carbon, and evaluates the effectiveness of available black carbon mitigation approaches and technologies for protecting climate, public health, and the environment. USEPA, March 2012. “The sign and magnitude of the net climate forcing from BC emissions are not fully known at present, largely due to remaining uncertainties regarding the effects of BC on clouds.”

12 The Impact of Black Carbon on Arctic Climate
The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) established an Expert Group on Short-Lived Climate Forcers (SLCFs) in 2009 with the goal of reviewing the state of science surrounding SLCFs in the Arctic and recommending the science tasks that AMAP should conduct or promote to improve the state of knowledge and its application to policy-making. This document is a result of the work completed by the AMAP Expert Group on SLCFs. It focuses on black carbon (BC) but also considers the impact of co-emitted organic carbon (OC). AMAP, 2011

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14 Sotpartiklarna åldras i atmosfären
Hur mycket? sek-min min-timmar timmar-dagar Åldring i atmosfären

15 Sotpartiklarna åldras i atmosfären
Hur mycket? APM DMA sek-min min-timmar timmar-dagar Åldring i atmosfären

16 Sotpartiklarna åldras i atmosfären
Hur mycket? SP-AMS Massa  sek-min min-timmar timmar-dagar Åldring i atmosfären sek minuter Artificiell åldring PAM

17 Sotpartiklarna absorberar solstrålning
Direkt effekt 3-λ Neph 3-λ PASS 7-λ Aethal sek-min timmar-dagar Åldring i atmosfären

18 Klimatmodeller använder olika sätt att beräkna hur sotpartiklarna absorberar solstrålning

19 Åldrade sotpartiklar tar upp vatten och
kan växa till molndroppar (CCN) Indirekt effekt CCNC Ökad fuktighet  Direkt effekt HTDMA sek-min min-timmar timmar-dagar Åldring i atmosfären

20 Sotets klimatpåverkan – Bond mfl JGR 2013
Kylande Värmande Partiklar Moln Snö Totalt Störning av strålningsbalansen (W/m2)

21 “Global Dimming” och framtidens klimat
Osäkerhet Vad är klimatkänsligheten för en fördubbling av halten CO2? Växthusgaernas uppvärming maskeras av aerosolerna avkylning. Hög klimatkänslighet (Starkt avkylande aerosoler) Låg klimatkänslighet (Svagt avkylande aerosoler) Andreae et al. (Nature, 2005)

22 Temperaturökning vid en fördubbling av halten CO2
HC Hansson, ITM, 2012

23 Stadsmätning: Köpenhamn, Øster Søgade 26 dec 2011 – 22 jan 2012
60 % av alla patriklar (PM1) innehåller en sotkärna.

24 Sotpartiklarna åldras i atmosfären
Hur mycket? Färska sotpartiklar Åldrade sotpartiklar

25 Lungdeposition av partiklar
Lycksele Trafik Deponerat antal partiklar (cm-3) Vedelding Totalantal partiklar (cm-3)

26 Centrala Köpenhamn 2012 Kemisk sammansättning Storleksfördelning
Åldrade sotpartiklar 20% Färska sotpartiklar 44% 3 % 6 % 13% 14%

27 Modern/Fossil Carbon from 14C Analysis in Total Carbon
Kristina Stenström, Johan Genberg Lund University Vavihill Fossil carbon Modern carbon K-puszta Melpitz JRC-Ispra San Pietro Capofiume

28 Sot Biogent OC OC - Veldning Fossilt OC Sot - Veldning Fossilt Sot
Vavihill Organic Aerosol Source Apportionment Data on OC/EC, 14C and levoglucosan Biogent OC OC - Veldning Fossilt OC Summer Winter Summer Winter Summer Winter Sot - Veldning Fossilt Sot Summer Winter Summer Winter Sot Johan Genberg et al, Lund University

29 Rural southern Sweden (Vavihill) Organic Aerosol Source Apportionment
Data on OC/EC, 14C and levoglucosan OC EC Summer: strong dominance of biogenic Organic Carbon (OC) Winter: equal contributions from biomass and fossil fuel burning Still significant winterly biogenic contribution (Genberg et al., ACP (2011)

30 (Aerosols, Clouds, and Trace gases Research InfraStructure Network)
is a European Project aiming at integrating European ground-based stations equipped with advanced atmospheric probing instrumentation for aerosols, clouds, and short-lived gas-phase species. Standard Operating Procedures for sampling and analysis of EC and light-absorbing carbon, including BC.

31 Emissions of EC (soot) in Europe – EC Mass
3/9/2008 WP 1.3 Transportation dominate

32 Öppen biomass-förbränning
EMEP modellen för sot – Uppdaterad med ny emissionsinventering för Europa (och vedeldning) BC i PM10 (µgm−3) Fossil andel Vedeldningandel Öppen biomass-förbränning Genberg et al, ACPD 2013

33 EMEP modellen för sot – Uppdaterad med ny emissionsinventering för Europa (och vedeldning)
Genberg et al, ACPD 2013

34 "Black Carbon - Formation, life cycle, health and climate impacts, policy and response measures"
Workshop June 2012