Transport models Are they really that important? Christian Nilsson, WSP 17 October 2014.

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1 Transport models Are they really that important? Christian Nilsson, WSP 17 October 2014

2 Transport models – are they really that important?  A few examples  Commuter rail system upgrade  High speed rail  Impacts of congestion charging  Congestion charging – traffic on a by-pass route  Conclusion – are the transport models important and do they help in the decision making?

3 Commuter rail system upgrade [ancient study]

4 Commuter rail system upgrade Source (in Swedish): ”Svealandsbanan - En investering för samverkan mellan regioner - en utvärdering av samhälls- och trafikekonomi”

5 Commuter rail system upgrade ”Excessively high!” ”We don’t believe in those figures!” ”Everybody knows forecasts cannot be trusted!” Source (in Swedish): ”Svealandsbanan - En investering för samverkan mellan regioner - en utvärdering av samhälls- och trafikekonomi”

6 Commuter rail system upgrade Source (in Swedish): ”Svealandsbanan - En investering för samverkan mellan regioner - en utvärdering av samhälls- och trafikekonomi” ”Success!” ”No one predicted this change!” ”Everybody knows forecasts cannot be trusted!”

7 High speed rail [historical study]

8 … but forecasts are not correct all times… Upgrade to high speed train services, Sundsvall-Stockholm Source (in Swedish): ”Ostkustbanan, modell och verklighet”

9 Input data… Source (in Swedish): ”Ostkustbanan, modell och verklighet”

10 … actual change Source (in Swedish): ”Ostkustbanan, modell och verklighet” No commuters by rail

11 New forecast using updated input data Source (in Swedish): ”Ostkustbanan, modell och verklighet”

12 Impacts of congestion charging [recent study]

13 Implementation of congestion charging in Stockholm Forecasts using the Sampers model, 2005 - 2006

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15 Congestion charging – traffic on the by-pass route [current study]

16 Essingenleden E20 (E4) E4 Centralbron Södermalm Kungsholmen Djurgården Lidingö Östermalm Hagastaden $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Current cordon

17 Essingenleden E20 (E4) E4 Centralbron Södermalm Kungsholmen Djurgården Lidingö Östermalm Hagastaden $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Charge extended to the by-pass route $

18 Essingenleden E20 (E4) E4 Centralbron Södermalm Kungsholmen Djurgården Lidingö Östermalm Hagastaden $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Charge extended to the by-pass route $

19 Essingenleden E20 (E4) E4 Centralbron Södermalm Kungsholmen Djurgården Lidingö Östermalm Hagastaden $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Charge extended to the by-pass route $ DECREASE

20 Essingenleden E20 (E4) E4 Centralbron Södermalm Kungsholmen Djurgården Lidingö Östermalm Hagastaden $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Charge extended to the by-pass route $ Private trips (low VoT) change of destination or mode Less congestion Shorter travel times Commercial traffic (high VoT) change routes Less traffic through town TRUE ???

21 Conclusion… are transport models really that important? Transport models Input data People (running and interpreting) What are the alternatives? Guessing, believing or use wishful thinking? Congestion charging Commuter rail line High speed rail By-pass route Commuter rail line By-pass route YES! They do help in the decision making! But it is not the only part that is important! And remember, there are things we don’t know about the future and are not covered by the models!

22 Thank you for your attention! Christian Nilsson christian.nilsson@wspgroup.se