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Vania Ceccato School of Architecture and the Built Environment Royal Institute of Technology Lars Dolmen The Swedish National Police Academy Jönköping,

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En presentation över ämnet: "Vania Ceccato School of Architecture and the Built Environment Royal Institute of Technology Lars Dolmen The Swedish National Police Academy Jönköping,"— Presentationens avskrift:

1 Vania Ceccato School of Architecture and the Built Environment Royal Institute of Technology Lars Dolmen The Swedish National Police Academy Jönköping, 14 th October 2010 Social uthållighet i den svenska glesbygden brott, upplev oro för brott och brottsförebyggande i glesbygdssamhällen Social sustainability in rural Sweden: crime, perceived safety and crime prevention Grant 251-2007-1954

2 1) investigating how crime levels in rural municipalities reflect the demographic and socio-economic changes that have been taking place during the last decade. 2) looking for patterns of perception of safety in rural communities. 3) assessing differences and/or similarities in crime prevention measures in a group of rural communities. Aim and objectives of the study The aim of this project is to assess crime, perceived safety and crime prevention practices as dimensions of social sustainability in Swedish rural communities. This will be achieved by: Environment Economic Social Safety

3 Crime in rural municipalities

4 FINDINGS 1.Crime in rural areas 2.Perceived safety 3.Actions towards safety (Crime prevention)

5 Crime in rural municipalities by type 1996-2007 AR = 776 to 982 crimes per 10.000 inhabitants 1996-2007

6 Changes in offences 1996 to 2007 Offences per 100 000 inhabitants

7 Geographical shifts in thefts 1996-2007

8 A municipality’s crime levels and its underlying criminogenic conditions

9 Crime will take place in rural areas where... Theft 1996 Theft 2007 Violence 1996 Violence 2007 OLSSpatial ErrorOLS YoungMale.1045**.0466.0650.1646*** (2.45)(1.24)(.896)(2.61) Divorce.1664***.1116***.1480***.1373*** (5.70)(4.98)(2.98)(4.80) Foreigner-.0129-.0119.0074.0093 (-1.53)(-1.45)(.514)(.911) Unemp.0052.0728***.0262.0614 (.427)(2.86)(1.26)(1.84) PopIncrease-.0002.0004***-.0003.0002 (-.163)(3.50)(1.186)(1.10) Income.0006.0022.0048.0036 (.262)(1.45)(.129)(1.64) VoterTurnout.0009-.0072-.0189.0012 (.107)(-.988)(-1.30)(.111) Demo.0372-.0214.0669.1058 (.609)(-.620)(.643)(1.90) Police.0313*.0295**.0630**.0831*** (1.95)(2.01)(2.31)(3.43) AlcoServ.0077***.0080***.0079**.0055** (3.76)(5.13)(2.79)(2.28) AlcoPurch.0909.1720**.1332**-.0379 (1.47)(2.42)(1.27)(-.363) PopDens.0018.0003.0018-.0016 Border (1.54) -.0478 (.038) -.1339*** (.895) -.0122 (-1.23) -.0340 (-.996)(-3.04)(-.149)(-.564) Triangle.1519***.0639.2260***.0920 (2.99)(.928)(2.62)(1.44) Accessible Rural.1065.2320***.0658.1794** (1.44)(3.77)(.521)(1.98) R-square.5127.5910.3412.3780 AIC21.420-13.516208.45893.884 Log Likelihood5.28922.758-88.229-30.942 Schwarz criterion72.14837.211259.186144.612 Moran’s I on residuals -.004-.139.027-.005 Notes: t and z-values with brackets, respectively. *** Significant at the 1 per cent level; ** significant at the 5 per cent level; * significant at the 10 per cent level proportion of young male population alcohol-selling premises characteristics of family structure Accessible rural areas Southern Sweden “Crime rates are found higher where urban criminogenic conditions emerge, not necessarily in urban areas; but in settings that have strong links with urban centres – Accessible rural areas.”

10 FINDINGS 1.Crime in rural areas 2.Perceived safety 3.Actions towards safety (Crime prevention)

11 Perceived safety in rural municipalities Nationella Trygghetsundersökningen, NTU Syfte 2005 - 2008 n = 20 000 (10 000) / år 16-79 år Bortfall, 22 – 30 %

12 Lund 10% Malmö 30%




16 Does increase in population affect fear? Overall fearFear in the neighbourhood Fear affects behaviour OLS Pop Increase -.000006.00006**. 00004* Unemployment -.008. 0006**.0003 Income.0002.0009*.0005* VoterTurnout.0002 -.002*.001 Witness -.153.092*.010 FamilyVictim.087.017.145*** Victim.155**.096***.074** Urban area.049**.058***.034*** Accessible rural.046**.037***.017* R-square.118.325.285 OLS results – Y = Perceived fear Data: National Victimisation Survey, 2006, 2007, 2008

17 1.Crime in rural areas 2.Perceived safety 3.Actions towards safety (Crime prevention)

18 What is crime prevention in rural areas in Sweden? How do they work? To what extent crime prevention groups are part of the local community organisation? Do they differ between types of municipalities/parts of Sweden? Crime prevention in rural municipalities CRIME PREVENTION IN SWEDEN IS DOMINATED BY ”BIG CITY PROBLEMS” EXISTENT TOOLS ARE NOT FIT TO ASSESS ”RURAL CONTEXT”

19 High crime Low crime New economyOld Economy Arvika (North) Markaryd (South) Åre (North) Gotland (South) Dorotea (North) Gnosjö (South) Storuman (North) Söderköping (South) No. of face-to-face Interviews: 48 - from Police officers to NGOs Interviews were performed between March and May 2010 Half are active Local Crime Prevention Groups (LCPG) Crime prevention in rural municipalities

20 What is Crime Prevention in rural areas? “…handlar om social kontroll. Det är i särklass den bästa brottsförebyggande effekten som vi har i det lilla samhället, närvaro och alla känner alla” (Police inspector, Southern Sweden) ”…det här med att skapa god kontakt mellan barn och vuxna” (Head of CP group, Southern Sweden) ”… gäller ju både droger, kriminalitet och våld, både inom nära relationer och utåt på olika platser” (Social care, Northern Sweden) ”.... brottsförebyggande är väldigt mycket. Vi jobbar med integration och flyktingar för jag känner att väldigt mycket av det är också ett arbete förebyggande mot hedersvåld och liknande” (NGO, Southern Sweden) Crime prevention groups aim at co-ordinating actions between local actors (limited to public spaces, often within municipalities boundaries)

21 Actions in rural communities Youth problems and drug/alchool related problems – priority (storstads problem?) Crime prevention groups in rural areas show indications of being well prepared to deal with minor common youth problems “Alla vårt ansvar” have a stronger impact on social life of youngsters than they would have had in bigger cities because of the smaller supply of social activities in rural areas (church, ungdomsgård, etc) Institutionalized actions more than product of “eldsjälar” (sectoral) Homogenous structure – why are not farmers in CP, for example? ---- power in the community, conflicts of interest

22 ”Jag bor 12,5 mil härifrån. Så jag bor hos min far och på station i veckorna. Det är en liten kommun men lite speciellt för vi har två näpoområden. Men det är ju många mil emellan, så det är en naturlig del i det. (Police officer, Northern Sweden) “Det är en annan syn här på alkoholen. Attityden….. Ja, kommer du på ett föräldramöte och lägger upp det på fel sätt så kan du bli ordentligt utskälld alltså. Så det gäller att verkligen tänka sig för hur man ska säga saker (Mental care advisor, Northern Sweden) Geographical, economic and cultural barriers limit the work of those involved in CP in North and South Sweden Actions are little evidence-based, many projects are copied from elsewhere Although CP covers large areas, little co-operation with external actors – differences between Northern and Southern municipalities New economy municipalities – Police officers in these areas are more focused on the temporary problems

23 Future research questions Accessible rural is a space in transition – these communities are tied up with traditional economy and life styles but are now facing new problems Challenges to : To re-think ”rural” not as a ”non-urban” in terms of risk for crime and perceived safety Safety in rural communities has to be adressed with focus on individual groups: We need to know what young people, elderly, women, minorities... think!!! Environmental crimes have to be an issue for future research. Poor official statistics Domestic violence in rural areas is an area that has also been neglected. NTU data & police statistics are not able to produce a regional and more local picture To better understand Crime Prevention actions in rural areas their role to improve safety in rural communities and overall impact on community life To what extent social capital affects CP’s performance?

24 Thank you!

25 New school bus is vandalised by students between Klimpfjäll and Vilhelmina. After this experience, the bus driver is concerned about his own safety, reported Västerbotten-Kuriren. Another event occurred in Säter, Dalarna, where a serious crime against the environment took place, after four males dumped and burned 200 hundred litres of explosive fluid close to water reservoirs, reported the Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter. In a more extreme account, the same newspaper reported the case of a young man who admitted to kill his wife, dumping her body in an oil tank in Teckomatorp, in Southern Sweden. In central Sweden, Dalarnas Tidningar, had an article on a 25 year old male that admitted to assault physically another male in Vansbro, causing facial fractures and bleeding. Not far away, in Strömsund, parents started an association that together with the Police and school is intended to decrease alcohol consumption among local teenagers and young people‘ These events took place in 2007 in the heart of the Swedish rural areas.

26 Safety and the rural areas Rural crime rates are lower than in urban areas Most people live in urban areas Why should we care? Bigger impact of crimes in rural communities About 2 million people live in some sort of rural areas Changes in pop structure and flows Safety is an important dimension of sustainability of communties

27 Safety as a dimension of social sustainability in rural Sweden Environment Economic Social Safety A sustainable community is “a place free from the fear of crime, from crime, where a feeling of security underpins a wider sense of place attachment and place attractiveness”. Raco (2007:306)

28 Sent by email to CP representatives in rural areas 78 rural municipalities Five hypothetical scenarious Youth related problems, ethnic related violence, domestic violence, organised crime and environmental offences

29 Actions are little evidence-based, many projects are copied Although CP covers large areas, little co- operation beyond municipal borders or with external actors New economy municipalities – CP deals with seasonality challenges without major disruption in daily routine Police officers in these areas are more focused on the temporary problems Actions in rural communities ”Vi f ö rs ö ker g ö ra lite s å nt inf ö r sommarens oreda. D ä r ä r det ju m å nga akt ö rer att samordna, det handlar om alkoholservering, information om alkoholf ö rt ä ringsf ö rbudet som finns i X, det m å ste finnas en fungerande tillnyktringsenhet, det handlar om polisi ä ra patrulleringsinsatser, tillsyn av krogar, m.m. Utifr å n det har vi varje v å r haft serier med m ö ten inland m å nga och ibland kortare ö verl ä ggningar. D ä r vi mobiliserar inf ö r sommaren, medvetandeg ö r varann, koll p å resurserna inf ö r sommaren. Sen har vi alltid ett summeringsm ö te efter sommaren” (Safety coordinator)

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