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Scania – Sustainable Urban Transport – April 2008

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1 Scania – Sustainable Urban Transport – April 2008

2 Hållbara transporter - här och nu!
Often, the largest part of emissions in a city comes from traffic, and especially heavy traffic. It sometimes feels difficult to change into greener, cleaner transport solutions. Not any more. With our partners for infrastructure and ethanol supply, we can now offer a complete turn-key package for Sustainable Heavy Transports for a city. We promote the changeover to renewable fuels … we will support operators, authorities and municipalities wishing to change over to renewable fuel … with contacts, partners, certificates needed to run public transport as well as urban goods transport on ethanol. In short – it is now easy to make city transport green! Jonas Strömberg Director Sustainable Solutions, Scania 2

3 Agenda Scania Drivkrafter för och emot hållbara transporter
Lösningar – här och nu! Ecolution by Scania Goda exempel – här och nu! A lot of info is available in slides and the speaker notes – could be used as reference library.

4 Drivers for Sustainable Transport
Climate Change Peak Oil Energy security Diesel shortage Air Quality Congestion Increase of transportation Many things drives for sustainability. We will briefly go through some of them. There is more info in this PPT (hidden slides with notes) that can be used as a ”reference library” if you like to know more. Drivers for Sustainable Transport 4

5 Global warming Effects so far beyond IPCC’s worst scenario
First 6 months 2010 $ million Climate change affects us all, rich and poor. The higher the temperature, the more evaporation and energy in the system, and the more forceful reactions. We will simply get a more unpleasant planet to inhabit. The changes will likely not be evenly distributed. Some places might experience heavier rains and floods, while others face droughts, storms and fires. We already see an increase in these extreme events Storms… Deserts… Fires… Sea level rise, Tuvalu… 100 year events  20 year events, etc Most people live near the coastline, and most of the World’s freshwater reserves are also in these areas, which will cause problems if sea levels rise. Recent science show that we are very quickly moving towards dangerous changes in temperature – if we move over 2 degrees there will be serious effects. The Stern report estimates that the costs of not avoiding dangerous climate change will be approx 5-20 % of global GDP… …and the cost to prevent them is estimated to 1 %... 262 million people were affected by climate disasters 2004 – 98 % of them in developing countries. The United Nations Development Programme's 2009 Arab Human Development Report said desertification threatened about 2.87 million square kilometres of land (1.15 million square miles) -- or a fifth of the Middle East and north Africa. For every degree Centigrade (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) increase in average ocean surface temperature, the team observed a 45-percent increase in the frequency of the very high (storm related) clouds. At the present rate of global warming of 0.13 degrees Celsius (0.23 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade, the team inferred the frequency of these storms can be expected to increase by six percent per decade. Xynthia storm – 3500 MUSD in cost (280 insured) Europeean floodings may/june 2010 – 2500 MUSD in cost (1065 insured) Increase in frequency of fierce weather 380  440 Increase in cost of effects million USD  Both from 2010 first half year as compared to average first half years 5

6 Drivers for sustainable transport End of cheap oil and local energy security
The so called ”sweet crude” – which is easy to extract (dark blue) – is running out. What is left is a hope for new, more difficult fields, unconventional oil like the tar sand oil (expensive and with very high CO2 emissions). 6

7 Transportsektorns utmaning Oljeberoende, CO2-utsläpp, energieffektivisering
Oil use in OECD 20 40 60 80 100 120 1970 1980 1990 2000 Other sectors 70 % Transport sector The transport sector is therefore the part of society that is facing the highest pressure for change – away from the dependency of oil. Other sectors like industry and energy production already reduce their dependence of oil. This is a very big challenge for the transport sector. Transport Sector to 97 % dependent on oil 7

8 Drivers for Sustainable Transport Air Quality & Congestion
Another very imporant driver Today more than 50 % of world population live in big cities – and this trend is increasing Traffic is usually the main source of the poor air quality – and especially heavy transportation Ethanol buses in Stockholm was introduced in 1989 mostly because they had so clean emissions… …and in New Dehli, heavy vehicles are only allowed to use gas – for the same reason. Over 50 % of World’s population live in cities Air pollution and congestion is a major problem in most cities

9 Why Sustainable Transport?
Climate Change Air Quality Are you part of the problem? Or part of the solution? So, there are many drivers for Sustainable Transport. And being a part of the problem is not good for any business… …so at Scania, we have tried to be a part of the solution for a long time. Oil & Energy Security Congestion 9

10 Sustainable transport - vision Many parallel roads
10 Sustainable transport - vision Many parallel roads Support from: Legislation Customer co-op Engine Aerodynamics Rolling resistance Payload 50% 1970 2000 2020 So which are the solutions? They are many, and have to be carried out in parallel. Basically it is about smarter transport and biofuels. We will combine them into a concept – Ecolution – that we will here more about later. I will now focus on some basics about biofuels. 1. Logistics 2. Driver 3. Vehicle technology 4. Biofuels 10 10

11 What you get for US $ 1 billion
Source: BRT Planning Guide 2007, The Institute for Transportation &/ Development Policy 426 km of Bus Rapid Transit 40 km of Light Rail 1) Assumes a total investment of US$1 billion to each system. Projected Bangkok BRT costs at US$2.34 million per kilometre. Hypothetical LRT system estimated at US$25 million per kilometre. Reported cost for Bangkok Skytrain (elevated rail) of US$72.5 million per kilometre. Reported cost of Bangkok MRTA (subway) of US$142.9 million per kilometre. 14 km of Elevated Rail 7 km of Metro/Subway What you get for US $ 1 billion 11

12 Scania is part of the solution!
12 Scania is part of the solution! One example of smarter transport is Ecolution – that we will talk more about later. 12 12

13 Commercially available renewable fuel alternatives
Ethanol Bio- Diesel (RME) Biogas Synthetic diesel Methanol DME Hydrogen Production capacity + - ? Local Emissions CO2/GHG reduction In vehicle Handle & store Comm. available Yes No We believe that you BOTH have to act now AND to develop for the future. And most importantly – we believe that we must use today's available technologies and fuels in scale, and in order to make a real change – now! There is no single silver bullet solution – we are most likely facing a multi-fuel future, where different fuels will be used, based on local parameters. So ALL fuels will be necessary to replace oil in the future.. If we take a brief look at the sustainable fuels for transportation, there are many options. On the top we see some of the alternatives, and on the left some important parameters for a fuel in order to be commercially successful. Volumes, emissions, infrastructure and economics are the most important ones. Only 3 renewable fuels can be said to be commercially available today – and in the near future (say, up to 2020) – ethanol, biogas and biodiesel. Background info 90 % of the renewable fuel in world today is ethanol, and that scenario is likely to stay. Liquid fuels are also easy to distribute, handle and store on-board the vehicle, as compared to gaseous fuels. Only 3 renewable fuels can be said to be commercially available today – and in the near future (-2020) – ethanol, biogas and biodiesel. And as you can see, from most of these perspectives - volume, CO2-effect, handling, etc – ethanol comes out very good. Biodiesel is also good, but there are not so much production capacity, and local emissions (NOx) tend to increase. Biogas is a good fuel, but limited in volume, has a more expensive infrastructure and less efficient engines. It is often more efficient to use in energy applications. Again, however, all fuels will be necessary for the future, and these alternatives complement each other, rather than compete! 13

14 3 commercial sustainable biofuels
90 % of World’s biofuel Local and global fuel Sustainable volume production 3rd party verification Stable fuel Average CO2 reduction % (EU) Many feedstocks Similar to diesel Fuel quality issues Cold properties Not for infrequent use High and low blends Average CO2 reduction % (EU) Local waste to fuel Good for local fleets Can be combined with CNG Expensive infrastructure Average CO2 reduction % (EU) Summarizing pros and cons of the 3 commercially available biofuels. 3 commercial sustainable biofuels

15 Ethanol and biodiesel the major tools to reach global energy security and CO2 goals!
10 % in 2020, 20 % in 2030. Biofuels (IEA)

16 Big reductions possible – here and now
Big reductions possible – here and now! from Annex V of the EU RED directive Biofuel production pathway Default GHG emission saving Sugar beet ethanol 52% Wheat ethanol, process not spec 16% Wheat ethanol, NG as process fuel 47% Wheat ethanol, straw as fuel 69% Sugar cane ethanol 71% RME (Biodiesel) 38% Waste oil FAME (Biodiesel) 83% Biogas from organic waste 73% Considerable reduction of greenhouse gases! But these fuels can already today deliver big cuts of GHGs! We can act – here and now – to turn towards sustainable transport! The default values for emission reduction for common biofuel production pathways are tabled in Annex V of the EU RED directive. Here you may find three pages where the values are listed. From the table we can see that sugar cane ethanol and biogas are performing very well, while other types of renewable fuels give lower emission reductions. In some cases, like unspecified ethanol, they do not reach the 35 percent limit and will not qualify for an accountable emission reduction within the European Union. 16 16

17 Biofuels Could be done right – could be done wrong!
Ethanol from SEKAB is now available with a third party certification – see Also Roundtable of Sustainable Biofuels and Better Sugarcane have good certification schemes. International Certification underway, securing environmental and socially acceptable fuels. We need to keep the transition towards biofuels going … every step counts as long as the fuel is sustainable. Scania supports the idea of certified fuels… in order to stimulate production of biofuels with good effect on climate gas reduction and global economic development. Both low blend and pure biofuels are necessary to reach the environmental targets. What are the parameters of a good fuel? -Large scale production capacity -Low emissions -High GH-gas reduction -Produced acc to Ethic principles - Consistent fuel quality - High energy content Easy to handle & store Liquid Non corrosive/poisonous Available now at competitive price Sustainability certificate 17

18 Ethanol, biogas and biodiesel can fulfil the EU criteria.
EU Directive: 10 % biofuels 2020 To count, biofuels must meet EU’s sustainability criteria: Minimum level of greenhouse gas savings (35%, rising to 50% in 2017, and to 60% in 2018 for new installations) No raw material from high carbon land No raw material from highly bio-diverse land Other local certification schemes can qualify under EU umbrella Should be used as a standard in all tendering! Ethanol, biogas and biodiesel can fulfil the EU criteria. Minimum level of greenhouse gas savings (35%, rising to 50% in 2017, and to 60% in for new installations) No raw material from high carbon land (wetlands, peat lands, continuously forested areas) No raw material from highly bio-diverse land (primary forests, nature protection areas, biodiverse grassland) Artikel 17 innehåller kriterier för hållbarhet, däribland krav på minskade utsläpp (17.2 ). Bestämmelserna om minskade växthusgasutsläpp omfattar samtliga biodrivmedel och flytande biobränslen. Övriga kriterier för hållbarhet ( ) gäller för samtliga biodrivmedel och flytande biobränslen, med undantag för sådana bränslen som framställts av avfall och restprodukter, utom restprodukter från jordbruk, vattenbruk, fiske och skogsbruk. Punkt 2 i artikel 17 stipulerar krav på växthusgasminskningar gentemot fossilt alternativ. Växthusgasminskningen ska från den 1 april 2013 vara 35 % för biodrivmedel och flytande biobränslen som producerats i anläggningar som var i drift 23 januari Denna nivå höjs från den 1 januari 2017 till 50 %. För anläggningar som tillkommit efter den 1 januari 2017 är tröskeln 60 %. Fram till den 1 april 2013 är det endast sådana biodrivmedel och flytande biobränslen som producerats i anläggningar som driftsatts efter den 23 januari 2008 som omfattas av kraven i punkt 2. I artikel 17.3 definieras markområden varifrån råvara för produktion av biodrivmedel och flytande biobränslen ur biologisk mångfaldsperspektiv inte får ha sitt ursprung. Kriteriet i punkt 3 omfattar mark som i januari 2008 eller därefter utgjordes av naturskog och annan trädbevuxen mark, områden som av myndighet utsetts för naturskyddssyften och gräsmark med stor biologisk mångfald. För gräsmark med hög biologisk mångfald ska kommissionen fastställa ytterligare kriterier och geografisk räckvidd. Artikel 17.4 syftar till att skydda markområden med stora kollager. Kriteriet i punkt 4 innehåller krav om att råvara inte får ha sitt ursprung från mark som i januari 2008 eller därefter varit våtmark (4a) eller kontinuerlig beskogade områden (4b och 4c). Artikel 17.5 syftar till att förhindra att skörd och odling av biomassa på tidigare odikad torvmark ska ge upphov till avgång av växthusgaser. 18

19 Ethanol buses & trucks Europe Poland Belgium UK Czech Rp France
Scandinavia Sweden Norway Finland SLA Brazil Africa South Africa Asia/Oceania Australia Thailand Czech Rp Norway UK South Africa Ethanol buses & trucks Some examples of where we now test ethanol vehicles. In Brazil, both buses and trucks are running today – in the city and at the sugar cane plantations. The possibility is there to create really sustainable transport solutions by using local sustainable ethanol : firstly for public transport bus and BRT systems… ..and secondly, also in the ethanol production itself, where trucks can use ethanol, creating a totally green production chain. Brazil 19 19 19

20 Biogas & biodiesel buses & trucks
Bus - Biodiesel Timber truck - Biodiesel Refuse - Biogas Coach - Biodiesel Gas Gotland Borås Stockholm Östersund Biodiesel Kalmar Göteborg Truck - Biodiesel Bus - Biogas Biogas & biodiesel buses & trucks 20 20 20

21 System Solutions for Sustainable Cities
Public transport & BRT Distribution & Waste And not only buses – when a city go for biofuels, there are big synergy effects combining all types of traffic and power supply. And Scania have applications and partners to make it possible to offer a complete system. Often, the largest part of emissions in a city comes from traffic, and especially heavy traffic. It sometimes feels difficult to change into greener, cleaner transport solutions. Not any more. With our partners for infrastructure and ethanol supply, we can now offer a complete turn-key package for Sustainable Heavy Transports for a city. We promote the changeover to renewable fuels … we will support operators, authorities and municipalities wishing to change over to renewable fuel … with contacts, partners, certificates needed to run public transport as well as urban goods transport on biofuels like ethanol, biodiesel and biogas. In short – it is now easy to make city transport green! Biofuel & Infrastructure Power Supply City fleets 21 21 21

22 Ethanol-hybrid buses tested in Stockholm 2009-10
…energy efficiency and biofuels are supporting each other – not competing… But we are also making this happen already now Starting in Stockholm later this year, we will start testing our hybrid powertrain in normal city buses. The engines are of course running on ethanol. The buses will run in regular city traffic so if you are visiting you are most welcome to take a ride! Sustainable fuel – ethanol, plus hybrids make up a truly and Unique sustainable solution. Ethanol-hybrid buses tested in Stockholm 22

23 Ökad energieffektivitet Marknadsdrivet - oavsett kravställning eller bränsletyp
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 litres/100 km 1 2 3 4 5 Euro ’92 ’96 ’01 ’06 ’09 2020 Bränsle är en stor del av operativa kostnaden. Bränsleeffektivitet är ett centralt konkurrensmedel. Alla effektiviseringar införs när de är kommersiellt gångbara. Stigande bränslepriser (alla bränslen)

24 Minskning av lokala emissioner Sker via lagstiftning
Scania – Sustainable Urban Transport – April 2008 Minskning av lokala emissioner Sker via lagstiftning NOx PARTICLES 24

25 EU-direktivet om grön upphandling
25 EU-direktivet om grön upphandling Syfte: Ta med energiförbrukning och utsläpp i upphandling. Räknar om dessa till ett monetärt värde. Men – om inte kravställaren lägger till egna krav  mycket liten effekt på CO2 och lokala utsläpp. I praktiken enbart effekt på energieffektivisering! And in order to improve environmental performance of the publicly owned vehicles a specific directive has been approved. The directive demands an account of lifetime operational performance concerning: energy consumption emissions of CO2 emissions of NOX, NMHC and particulate matter Other environmental impacts may also be considered

26 Projected CO2-emissions from road transport in EU
Hur tacklar vi den stora utmaningen här och nu? Effektiv CO2-reduktion från transportsektorn Projected CO2-emissions from road transport in EU På sikt: Längre lastbilar Överföring kollektivtrafik Här och nu: Krav CO2 centralt. Data from TREMOVE

27 Scania – Sustainable Urban Transport – April 2008
27 Index, 1995=100 CO2 Both particulates and NOx are drastically reduced. At this stage, the emission levels from new trucks will be so low that the main environmental problem will be CO2 – which is equivalent to fuel consumption. To achieve such low emission levels … from what we know today … both EGR and SCR will be needed. This is a strong reason for us to work with both technologies and maintain competence within all areas. CO NOx PM-diesel VOC Benzene SO2 CO2 Källa: Auto Oil II – Communication from the European Commission COM(2000) 626 final 27

28 Ja Vad driver hållbara transporter här och nu?
Operativ kostnad Lagstiftning (Euro 5 etc) Gröna upphandlings-direktivet Behov av ytterligare upphandlings-krav Lokala emissioner (PM, NOx) Ja Värderas mycket svagt Energi-effektivitet Fossil CO2 Svag drivkraft Transportbranschens svåraste utmaning – kraftfull fossil CO2-reduktion – kan här och nu endast effektivt drivas genom egna funktionella upphandlingskrav… … Viktigt: Hur mycket CO2-reduktion får man per krona? Vad driver hållbara transporter här och nu? 28

29 Ja Vad driver hållbara transporter här och nu?
Operativ kostnad Lagstiftning (Euro 5 etc) Gröna upphandlings-direktivet Behov av ytterligare upphandlings-krav Lokala emissioner (PM, NOx) Ja Värderas mycket svagt Energi-effektivitet Fossil CO2 Transportbranschens svåraste utmaning – kraftfull fossil CO2-reduktion – kan här och nu endast effektivt drivas genom egna funktionella upphandlingskrav… Viktigt: Hur mycket CO2-reduktion får man per krona? Vad driver hållbara transporter här och nu? 29 29

30 Mycket av energieffektiviseringar äts upp av transportökningen.
För kraftfull fossil CO2-reduktion krävs därför både biodrivmedel och energieffektivisering! Energieffektivisering drivs idag genom marknadskrafter och EU-direktivet för grön upphandling. Men inget driver införande av biodrivmedel. T ex kan man i upphandling kräva specificerad nivå på CO2-reduktion eller viss andel biodrivmedel enligt EU-direktivets metod a) och b). Viktigt: Hur mycket CO2-reduktion får man per krona? Transportökningen kräver både effektivisering och biodrivmedel. Sammanfattning 30

31 31 Men det finns kommersiella lösningar som kan göra verklig skillnad – här och nu! One example of smarter transport is Ecolution – that we will talk more about later. 31 31

32 Hållbara transporter - här och nu!
Often, the largest part of emissions in a city comes from traffic, and especially heavy traffic. It sometimes feels difficult to change into greener, cleaner transport solutions. Not any more. With our partners for infrastructure and ethanol supply, we can now offer a complete turn-key package for Sustainable Heavy Transports for a city. We promote the changeover to renewable fuels … we will support operators, authorities and municipalities wishing to change over to renewable fuel … with contacts, partners, certificates needed to run public transport as well as urban goods transport on ethanol. In short – it is now easy to make city transport green! Birger Pettersson Säljare Gröna Produkter, Scania-bilar Sverige 32

33 33 Men det finns kommersiella lösningar som kan göra verklig skillnad – här och nu! One example of smarter transport is Ecolution – that we will talk more about later. 33 33 33

34 34 Ecolution by Scania Scania tar aktivt ansvar för att reducera utsläpp av CO2 här och nu Kundanpassade lösningar för specifkationer och drivmedel som ger bästa driftekonomi mest utsläppsminskning per krona Main message: The main focus for Ecolution is decreasing carbon dioxide emissions and how this can be reduced. We don’t just talk about what we are going to do in the future – we take an active part here and now. HERE AND NOW CUSTOMISED packaging of PRODUCTS and SERVICES, ensures the MOST ECONOMICAL SOLUTION 34

35 Ecolution by Scania Main components Vehicle Driver training
35 Ecolution by Scania Main components Vehicle Driver training Driver follow-up Maintenance+ CO2 and energy optimised specification Customised energy efficient driving Coaching and continuous improvements Extra attention to fuel economy Consulting These are the main components for ecolution – a mix of products and services all targeted to minimise CO2 emissions in a cost efficient way. Let’s look into them in detail. 35

36 Ecolution by Scania - exempel
Maintenance+ 34.1 l/100 km 31.2 l/100 km 28.4 l/100 km Driver follow-up biofuel This is an outline showing how the different ecolution components work together to lower the CO2 emissions and some real figures from a Swedish customer truck... Exempel från kund med long-haul diesellastbil Från: 3,4 liter/mil, medelhastighet 59.2 km/h (Ursprungsfordon) Till: 3,1 liter/mil, medelhastighet 63.8 km/h (Optimerat nytt fordon) Till: 2,8 liter/mil, medelhastighet 63.2 km/h (Förarträning) 36

37 Ecolution Bra för miljön. Bra för affärerna. Här och nu. Brochure
Tagit fram marknadsföringsmaterial. Brochure

38 Bioetanol (ED95) Biodiesel (B100) Biogas (CBG)
Applications for Heavy transport City buses, waste collectors, distribution trucks Applications for Heavy transport All types of appli- cations, including long-haulage trucks and coaches Applications for Heavy transport City buses, waste collectors Trucks! Produkter för alla kommersiella biodrivmedel

39 Tumregler för biobränslen
Stadsbuss, Distribution, Sopbil Fjärrtrafik, Coach , Anläggning Bioetanol, biodiesel, biogas Biodiesel Tumregler för biobränslen

40 Analysera var du får mest CO2-besparing för pengarna!
40 71% 73% 38% CO2-reduktion +29% +22% +3% OBS - exempel! Varje fall är unikt – olika drivmedelsproduktion och driftfall. Scania hittar bästa lösning för varje kund! To make the best offer we need to know the conditions on each market. When it comes to biofuels it’s a matter of availability and cost for the fuel. This varies between markets. But the vehicle and maintenance costs are fix and as you can see there is an additional cost for both ethanol and biogas. Also where available ethanol has a clear advantage… It is worth mentioning that CO2 reduction for a hybrid vehicle is equal to its reduction of fuel consumption, 10-15%. 40

41 Ethanol buses in Stockholm since 1989
All buses on biofuels in the inner city Big effect on both air quality and CO2 Cost efficient CO2 reduction! ~ 500 ethanol buses ~ 140 biogas buses Over 6 tonnes of particles and tonnes of CO2 reduced/year Public Transport Authority’s (SL) biofuel goals: % % % It is possible to make good business of biofuels – an example. One of the biggest and most successful renewable fuel projects is the ethanol city buses in Stockholm. From 30 buses in 1989 to some 500+ buses today. A city without fossil fuels! Here Scania has over 20 years of experience of ethanol for heavy vehicles, so let me underline that this is not a new technology – it is a standard product since many years! Huge reductions of both global and local emissions, and improved air quality has been achieved – using a simple, standard technology! Also 80 biogas buses operate in Stockholm. Background info: More than: 18 million litres of diesel reduced per year tonnes of fossil CO2 reduced per year, and since certified ethanol is used, reduction of CO2 is up to 90 %. 6 tonnes of PM (particulates) reduced per year, figures from SL 2007 Stockholm Public Transport’s goals: Buses on Renewable Fuels: % % % Up to 90% less fossil CO2 with existing technology 41

42 Scania – Sustainable Urban Transport – April 2008
Tack! Scania – Sustainable Urban Transport – April 2008 42

43 Scania – Sustainable Urban Transport – April 2008

44 All types of land use compete with other types of land use.
In EU, total farm land use decrease – but biofuel production increase. Biofuels have not caused the food price increase. (World Bank) 80-90% of increased food production has and will come from increased yield and more efficient farming, only 10-20% from new land (World Food Org. FAO) Today’s debate is shallow, biased and not fact based. So - it is not so simple that biofuels always directly compete with food. Even if it looks nice in a media headline. All land use compete with other land use… One type of land use could therefore not be blamed for the accumulated problems. The issue is really: What do we want to use our land for? Golf courses, tobacco, coffee, tea, housing, roads, animal feed, grazing… all of them use more land than bioenergy. (Approx 1,5 % of the World’s farmland is used for biofuels. 40 % of the World's farmland is used for animal feeding…. But most importantly, we have many unused or poorly used land areas suitable for farming. The average farming yield has incresed by 2% per year but land use for farming only by 0,2% per year… … and also in future, FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) sees that 90 % of the increased food production will come from more efficient farming, not from increased land use. And this has also been the case historically. So it is very important to realise that change of land use is not a “zero-sum game”. It is very important to develop farming, especially in the Third World, but also e.g. in Eastern Europe. In Africa the yield/area has been unchanged since the 1960s. Source diagram: FAO; Towards 2015/30; Technical interim report 4/2000 Source: FAO, OECD Global land use

45 Utsläpp från landanvändning
Jordbruk och djurhållning är idag största orsaken till vattenkonsumtion och CO2-utsläpp från landanvändning. 70 % av världens fattiga är också jordbrukare. Fattigdom är största drivkraften för ohållbar landanvändning (erosion, kalhuggning, svedjebruk, etc.) Fokus ligger på 1 % av landanvändningen - 67 olika certifieringsmetoder för biodrivmedel på gång… Biodrivmedel pionjär för hållbar landanvändning! A very small amount of emissions from land use come from biofuels – but that is where all the focus is. We need to focus on Good land management practise for all types of land use And the real root cause – poverty that forces many people to practise very unsustainable land use, like burning, logging, erosion, etc. Agricultural productivity is low on large parts of the globe. Such agricultural practices are often unsustainable as such. Assessment and synthesis of existing information Sustainable biomass potential in 2050 equals todays energy demand Bioenergy Revisited: Dornbug et al., Energy & Environmental Science, 2010 Page 227 An inconvenient truth: “Almost 30 % of the CO2 released into the atmosphere each year is a result of the burning of brushland for subsistence agriculture and wood fires used for cooking.” Utsläpp från landanvändning

46 EEBs studie - kommentarer
Message: Biofuels cause more CO2 than fossil fuels – “ILUC effects” ILUC in itself is a non-proven and very questioned theory But direct LUC policies are both possible and needed for ALL types of land use EEB: “For 10 % biofuels ,1-6,6 MHa needed” No efficiency factor, no set aside land…?? 80-90 % of food from increased efficiency (FAO) 40 MHa of set aside land in Eastern Europe only… (positive LUC) “African sustainable Savannah  farmland”…?? Extremely unlikely.. Not a serious study, lack of source criticism from media…!? More serious research show very positive LCA and LUC effects from most biofuels. (Ex “LCA av svenska biodrivmedel” - Börjesson, m fl What is ILUC for a pair of jeans, oil production, etc…? We have looked at this and the study from the "nine green organisations". They are really using the very non-robust and non-proven concept of ILUC in a very dubious way. Especially since in the EU, we set aside more and more land and still increase biofuel production rapidly... To fulfil EUs 10 % biofuel need, they estimate 4,1-6,9 million ha of farmland is needed. They however totally (and probably on purpose) neglect the factor of increased efficiency in farming (the FAO estimates that % of new food production will come from increased efficiency on existing land, rather than from new land). They also neglect all of the land set aside in Eastern Europe, where up to 40 million ha of farmland is available... When using this type of land, there is either no or most probably even positive direct land use change (LUC) effects... Secondly, they have multiplied the estimated land area with an ILUC-factor (ILUC - Indirect Land Use Change - being an already very debatable and almost impossible-to-prove theory) representing emissions when going from sustainable african savannahs (???) to farmland. This a situation that will not happen, both from a green, but certainly from an economic perspective. IF land would be used in Africa to supply Europe, it would not be "sustainably managed savannah", it would be old, set-aside farmland there as well, just like in Europe... More serious (and unbiased) research show that e g ethanol from various sources (even wheat) in EU/Sweden/Africa.. has very positive life-cycle CO2-effects, i a caused by high energy efficiency, the effective use of bi-producs as animal feed (replacing soy protein from Brazil...), etc. From a scientific viewpoint, this report is really a new limbo landmark of "how low can you go"... EEBs studie - kommentarer 46

47 3rd generation diesel-ethanol engine Highly efficient diesel combustion
Euro 5 and EEV Best available environmental standard 9-litre diesel engine hp, 1200 Nm Thermal efficiency Ethanol up to 43% Diesel up to 44% Fuel Ethanol with 5% ignition improver Proven technology More than 700 buses sold since 1989 Let’s take a brief look at our technology for ethanol. We have used ethanol with the DIESEL ENGINE PRINCIPLE to get maximum efficiency. (As compared to most cars, using the Otto (petrol) engine, which is less efficient). The latest engine generation achieves the same efficiency as a diesel engine. Ethanol also gives a very clean combustion and achieving low particle and NOx emissions according to the strictest standard Euro 5/EEV is no problem. Background info: The fuel is 95 % ethanol and 5 % ignition improver Supply of ignition improver to blend with local ethanol possible The fuel used is pure ethanol, mixed with 5% ignition improver (this fuel quality is referred to as ED95). Please note that the fuel mix usually used for passenger cars is 85% ethanol and 15% petrol (a quality generally called E85). As reported by Stockholm Public Transport, the emission reduction from 20 years of ethanol bus operation are truly impressive. Up to 90% CO2-saving 47

48 Exhaust emissions from comparable engines
Emission factors (g/litre fuel) Engine / Fuel NOx (Nitrous Oxides) PM (Particles) Net CO2* ED95 Ethanol 4 0.02 460 Diesel fuel 7 0.05 2 700 RME / Biodiesel 9 1 600 A comparison of some different fuels regarding local emissions. As you can see, ethanol is a very clean fuel. *) Net CO2-emission depends on fuel source. Values calculated acc. default values in RES directive. ED95 of Brazilian origin. Tailpipe emission is 1440 g Diesel fuel: European certification fuel, RME of European origin. All engines DC 9.

49 Big difference between Scientific journals and Newspapers
The power of the written word is strong. But unfortunately, most people do not read Scientifical Magazines. So, again, there is a big difference between what is written where! Sadly, it seems that the general view is that what is written in tabloids is the truth… 49

50 Vehicle specification “reference” vs. Ecolution
50 50 TYPICAL COMMON SPECIFICATION Chassis LA4x2MNA Cab CR19H Engine DC13 10, 440 hp Axle distance 3700 mm Air deflectors With Tyre dimension 315/70 R22.5 Opticruise Gearbox GRS905R Rear axle R780 Extra equipment No extra equipment on roof Fleet management No C200 analysis Decreased vehicle weight 5th wheel with bottom plate Direct mounted 5th wheel 2-spring air + F800 frame 4-spring air + F700 frame Engine Power: <600hp Fuel: diesel / biodiesel Side air deflectors 430 mm 510 mm Tyre pattern Energy SaverGreen Scania Ecocruise without with This is an example comparing a typical spec. for long haulage vehicle with the optimised ecolution spec. Since the long haulage vehicle operates at high speeds all possible efforts has been made to reduce speed dependent losses – rolling resistance, air drag, engine speed. The C200 is also mandatory – that is the tool we use for collecting vehicle data used for driver support (coaching) and controlling vehicle condition. Speed limiter 89 km/h 85 km/h Sideskirts without With low-drag, 780 mm Cruising revs >1300 r/min <1250 r/min 50

51 Optimised specification
51 51 Optimised specification Fleet management No C200 analysis Engine Fuel: Biodiesel, biogas, ethanol Highly reflective glass without with Gear shifting programme with Eco Openable windows with Not in combination with AC Acceleration control without with Together with R&D we have analysed different kind of operations and evaluated which specifications that is suitable where. This is an example of a Ecolution specification for buses operating within regular service city/suburban traffic. As demand the fuel is either biodiesel, biogas or ethanol, which significantly reduce the CO2 emissions. For short distance transports we focus on renewable fuels. The reason for this is that the distribution network for renewable fuels is often limited. But if the bus stays within a limited area it is feasible to create a fuel infrastructure to supply a population of trucks that stays in the area. Alternative fuels is the most powerful solution for reducing CO2, so when operating within limited area, this is the best solution for this application. Optimised specification below to reduce fuel consumption: Gear changing programme Eco changes gear at low number of revolutions. Accelerates faster than Super Eco but still with fuel consumption prioritised. Acceleration controls the maximum permitted acceleration at different speeds, smoother speed increase gives fuel savings. Scania Ecocruise saves fuel by not accelerating when climbing a hill until it levels out and using momentum at the bottom of downhill sections. Then we have focused on energy efficiency and reducing idling by using: Auxiliary heating reduces the need of idling. Highly reflective glass reduces heat radiation which reduces the work/usage of the AC. In combination with AC, the customer is not allowed to specify. This, is to maintain even temperature, keeps down the usage of heater/AC Auxiliary heater without with 51

52 Ethanol, biogas and biodiesel can fulfil the EU criteria.
EU Directive: 10 % biofuels 2020 To count, biofuels must meet EU’s sustainability criteria: Minimum level of greenhouse gas savings (35%, rising to 50% in 2017, and to 60% in 2018 for new installations) No raw material from high carbon land No raw material from highly bio-diverse land Other local certification schemes can qualify under EU umbrella Ethanol, biogas and biodiesel can fulfil the EU criteria. Minimum level of greenhouse gas savings (35%, rising to 50% in 2017, and to 60% in for new installations) No raw material from high carbon land (wetlands, peat lands, continuously forested areas) No raw material from highly bio-diverse land (primary forests, nature protection areas, biodiverse grassland) Artikel 17 innehåller kriterier för hållbarhet, däribland krav på minskade utsläpp (17.2 ). Bestämmelserna om minskade växthusgasutsläpp omfattar samtliga biodrivmedel och flytande biobränslen. Övriga kriterier för hållbarhet ( ) gäller för samtliga biodrivmedel och flytande biobränslen, med undantag för sådana bränslen som framställts av avfall och restprodukter, utom restprodukter från jordbruk, vattenbruk, fiske och skogsbruk. Punkt 2 i artikel 17 stipulerar krav på växthusgasminskningar gentemot fossilt alternativ. Växthusgasminskningen ska från den 1 april 2013 vara 35 % för biodrivmedel och flytande biobränslen som producerats i anläggningar som var i drift 23 januari Denna nivå höjs från den 1 januari 2017 till 50 %. För anläggningar som tillkommit efter den 1 januari 2017 är tröskeln 60 %. Fram till den 1 april 2013 är det endast sådana biodrivmedel och flytande biobränslen som producerats i anläggningar som driftsatts efter den 23 januari 2008 som omfattas av kraven i punkt 2. I artikel 17.3 definieras markområden varifrån råvara för produktion av biodrivmedel och flytande biobränslen ur biologisk mångfaldsperspektiv inte får ha sitt ursprung. Kriteriet i punkt 3 omfattar mark som i januari 2008 eller därefter utgjordes av naturskog och annan trädbevuxen mark, områden som av myndighet utsetts för naturskyddssyften och gräsmark med stor biologisk mångfald. För gräsmark med hög biologisk mångfald ska kommissionen fastställa ytterligare kriterier och geografisk räckvidd. Artikel 17.4 syftar till att skydda markområden med stora kollager. Kriteriet i punkt 4 innehåller krav om att råvara inte får ha sitt ursprung från mark som i januari 2008 eller därefter varit våtmark (4a) eller kontinuerlig beskogade områden (4b och 4c). Artikel 17.5 syftar till att förhindra att skörd och odling av biomassa på tidigare odikad torvmark ska ge upphov till avgång av växthusgaser. 52

53 Viktigaste miljöutmaningarna för transportsektorn här och nu
Utsläpp fossil CO2 Utsläpp lokala emissioner (Partiklar, NOx etc) Energieffektivisering

54 Vad driver minskad miljöpåverkan från hållbara tunga transporter här och nu?
Operativ kostnad Lagstiftning EU-direktivet för grön upphandling Egna upphandlingskrav

55 Next generation of biofuels
Future biofuels are likely to be ..ethanol from sugar cane ..ethanol (and other fuels) from cellulose ..fuels from waste ..electric Cellulosic waste in farming today = % of today’s energy used for transportation – Gamechanger! Food and fuel from same crop/land Flexible and more efficient bioenergy factories Produce fuel, heat and electricity with efficiencies of 85% (already today) The future fuels are less likely to compete directly with food Cellulosic waste in farming today = EJ/year And here we can remember that transport today uses 90 EJ…. This is a great gamechanger for the land use debate. Den stora utmaningen i andra generationens cellulosaetanol ligger i att effektivt omvandla den motståndskraftiga cellulosan till jäsbart socker. Detta är en nyckelteknik när det gäller möjligheten att nå de höga mål som EU och USA har satt gällande ökningen av biodrivmedelsanvändningen Den stora utmaningen i andra generationens cellulosaetanol ligger i att effektivt omvandla den motståndskraftiga cellulosan till jäsbart socker. Detta är en nyckelteknik när det gäller möjligheten att nå de höga mål som EU och USA har satt gällande ökningen av biodrivmedelsanvändningen

56 Potential bioenergy globally 2050 (TWh)
Waste from farming Organic waste Manure Forest waste/bi-products Energy Crops Total (average) Total energy use globally: Whereof energy for transport: Global teoretisk potential. Ej realistisk, men ger en indikation om att det finns betydande outnyttjade möjligheter. Source: IPCC and Worldwatch Institute Huge potential of bioenergy! 56

57 Biofuel availability 90% of renewable fuel is ethanol
Mandatory blending will absorb much of European biodiesel volumes Of these fuels, ethanol is the World’s largest biofuel - 90 % of all biofuels is ethanol, and that scenario is likely to stay for a long time, …since there also is a huge growth, especially for ethanol. Biodiesel is also growing but it is not the same volumes as ethanol. Biogas is still not measurable on a global level – but will likely be a available in many major cities in smaller volumes in the future. Background info: 50 % of research grants are for ethanol 90 % of all new investment in biofuels are ethanol. 57


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